A look at the Rams’ strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball
The Buffalo Bills travel west this weekend to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a game that will look significantly less like a snow globe than the one they just played last Sunday. The Rams sit at 6-6 on the year and are in striking distance for the NFC West title if they can pull together some wins.
In doing my usual stat dive this week, I expected to find strengths and weaknesses balanced out pretty well to result in a .500 team. However, a surface glance reminded me of the phrase “Jack of all trades, master of none.” At least on one side of the ball. Let’s dive in...
What are the Los Angeles Rams’ 2024 offensive rankings?
If you haven’t guessed by now, let me make it definitive. My favorite stats are of the “per drive” variety when it comes to team rankings. One drive is one chance. What do you typically do with that chance?
Well, if you’re the Rams, you’re pretty average when it comes to your one chance. At 1.96 points per drive, LA is 16th in the NFL. If you’re into the word “average,” that fits pretty well from a “median” perspective. If you prefer “mean” they’re a bit below the league average of 2.04 points per drive.
The Rams are 20th in scoring percentage (35.5%), which is well within the average per my Rule of Four (see below). They’re 13th in turnover rate (9.9%) which is also still average per my Rule of Four. They’re 12th in time of possession with 2:52 on average.
Diving into rates beyond per-drive, LA is 15th in yards per play (5.41). There’s some disparity here though, with a 24th rank in rushing yards per rush (barely average but still average per the Rule of Four) and 16th in yards per pass.
The Rams have the 11th-best interception rate 1t 1.71% and the 15th-best sack rate with 6.83% of drop backs ending in a sack.
Interestingly, there is one anomaly on the offensive side of the ball I’d like to bring to you attention. While LA has the 12th-highest average time of possession per drive, they have the 29th-ranked time of possession per game. How is that extreme of a variance possible? They’ve only had 121 drives, third-fewest in the league. Keep this in the back of you head as we switch gears to the defense.
What are the Los Angeles Rams’ 2024 defensive rankings?
On this side of the ball, the theme of “consistently average” has some important deviations. To start with, the Rams allow 2.37 points per drive — which is 28th in the league. Per the Rule of Four, that’s in the “bad” category and not quite the “terrible” one.
That 28th ranking holds true for scoring percentage, with 45.5% of opponent drives ending in a score. There’s some redemption when it comes to turnover rate, with 11.4% of opponent drives ending that way. That’s 13th in the league, so back to average.
Now back to bad. The Rams allow a 3:05 average time of possession per drive — 29th in the league, and in the “horrible” zone. Before we put this together with the offensive side of things, let’s jump into those non-per-drive stats quick.
On a per-play basis, LA allows 5.68 yards, which is 25th (bad). They’re 21st (average) when it comes to rushing yards per play, and 29th (terrible) in the league when it comes to passing. They have the ninth-best interception rate (average but barely) and the 14th-best sacks per pass attempt.
Putting it together
When it comes to LA’s offense, there’s nothing to key in on either way. The Rams haven’t had spectacular success, but neither have they had catastrophic failure. On paper, Buffalo’s defense seems very well-poised to take away LA’s passing game — which is their relative strength. The Bills are less well set in the run game that’s not far behind, but again it appears to be an average run game.
On defense, there’s no suggestion that the Bills shouldn’t be able to use the run game, but the on-paper look strongly suggests a big day for quarterback Josh Allen through the air. If only Allen were used to being in California...
I want to circle back to the time-of-possession stats from above. I wrote something recently describing how the low turnover rate and methodical drives from the Bills have led to less plays for the offense but greater efficiency. The Rams’ data suggests very strongly that they struggle to shorten their opponents’ drives. Look for Buffalo to play their 2024 game of careful-but-impactful football to try and take over things in Week 14.
Rule of Four: Explained
You often see top 10 as a rule of thumb for groupings in the NFL, but when it comes to team averages that’s a terrible rule of thumb. Ten teams is almost a third of the league and from a basic stats point of view, having a third of a population in a grouping and calling it a significant measure is rarely backed up by the numbers.
The Rule of Four is a better way to have a rule of thumb that’s statistically significant. It’s not perfect, like any “Top #” list, but gives a much better quick guess at who is truly good and who is not.
The groupings per the Rule of Four are:
- Top 4 teams in a stat = Terrific
- Teams ranked 5-8 in a stat = Good
- Teams ranked 9-24 in a stat = Average
- Teams ranked 25-28 = Bad
- Bottom 4 teams in a stat = Terrible