Bills at Ravens All-22 analysis: Buffalo’s third-down offense must improve vs. Texans

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Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

Would converting on third downs have made a difference for the Bills in Week 4?

The Buffalo Bills fell to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, suffering a 35-10 blowout loss in front of a national audience for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball, never allowing the Bills to get into a groove.

Despite some resilient moments from Buffalo’s offense — particularly when they clawed their way back to within 11 points in the third quarter before a costly turnover on a foolish trick play in Baltimore territory changed the momentum of the game — their inability to convert on third downs played a key role in defeat.

The Bills finished just 3-of-13 on third downs, a steep drop from their 41% conversion rate during the three games prior. Let’s take a look at how those third downs shook out.

Play 1

Quarterback Josh Allen made a nice scramble but fell inches short of the first down. The Bills converted on the subsequent 4th & Inches. The Ravens threw Allen off his read by mixing up their coverage, going man-to-man on the single receiver at the bottom of the screen while playing Cover 2 zone elsewhere. They effectively forced Allen off his initial read, leading him to tuck the ball and run. However, their rush lanes widened, allowing Allen to escape.

Play 2

Here, the Ravens played Cover 1 man-to-man with the middle linebacker spying Allen and also clogging his first throwing window. This caused Allen to pump fake and wait for the next window. He found tight end Dalton Kincaid with a slightly high pass, but it’s one Kincaid should come down with. The Bills had multiple options to pick up the first down here but couldn’t capitalize.

Play 3

For this play, the Ravens were in Cover 1 man-to-man again, but instead of having a spy, they blitzed the linebacker. I like Buffalo’s play call on this 3rd & 6. They motioned in wide receiver Mack Hollins at the bottom of the screen to reduce his split and get closer to Kincaid. Hollins ran vertically at Kincaid’s defender at the snap, getting in his way. Kincaid delayed his route so he could get some separation underneath. Allen put the ball on the money for a first down.

Play 4

This play didn’t officially count as third down due to a holding penalty. The following play, 3rd & 17, involved a high snap and a quarterback draw, but I’m excluding that. On this play, the Ravens showed a six-man blitz pre-snap but dropped three defenders into coverage, leaving a three-man rush. Buffalo’s offensive line was left guessing, leading to a one-on-one block for the defensive tackle, who spun outside and pressured Allen, ruining the play.

Play 5

I don’t mind the play call on this 3rd & 1. The Bills ran an RPO (run-pass option), giving Allen three options: hand off to Cook if the defensive end stayed wide, pull and run if the defensive end crashed, or throw the quick out. The problem was, the defensive end made an outstanding play, coming off the running back and tackling Allen after he pulled the ball.

Play 6

The Bills brought in an extra blocker to help with the Ravens’ blitz look. Baltimore showed like they are bringing six rushers, and they ultimately do — they just dropped a guy in the middle and blitzed a man from the outside instead. This caused the Bills’ offensive line to adjust to the new pressure.

Initially, it looked like Buffalo picked up the blitz, however, there was a miscommunication between the right guard and extra blocker in the backfield that allowed a rusher to come free. This left Allen no time to throw the ball to the deeper routes (where was his checkdown?) and ultimately saw him sacked. This is a shame because Coleman got open for what would likely have been a big gain at the bottom of the screen.

Play 7

For this play, Ravens were in Cover 1 man-to-man with a spy at linebacker again. They only rushed four players and Allen had a decent amount of time. There were a couple of quick options for Allen, but he attempted to hit the intermediate crossing route to wide receiver Khalil Shakir. In a common theme from that evening, the defender made a solid play on the ball.

Play 8

This was 3rd & 9 for the Bills and the Ravens decided to switch their coverage up to a Cover 3 zone, something they didn’t do often last Sunday. Allen had a few options to throw the ball to for a first down, but the Baltimore got pressure with four rushers and pushed Allen off his spot, resulting in a missed opportunity.

Play 9

This play is too long for a GIF. Allen brought in extra blockers to compensate for a blitz, but the Ravens only bring four, which takes a receiver out of his original route. That wasn’t ideal for this 3rd & 5. The Ravens again showed six rushers, but ended up dropping two into coverage. Baltimore again got pressure with four, forcing Allen out of the pocket. The secondary played man-to-man on the backside (top of screen) and Cover 2 everywhere else. Shakir did an extraordinary job of staying with the play and giving Allen an option to throw to at the last second. Allen was otherworldly, the throw was ridiculous, and the amount of times he’s done this sort of thing is mind-boggling. Check this out:

Play 10

This play had a chance to be special but wasn’t executed properly. The Bills motioned wide receiver Curtis Samuel out left, then had him reverse direction to the right on a flat route. The tight bunch formation on the right side created congestion, but the Ravens had the perfect defensive call to counter it, blitzing from the trips side. Allen’s attempt to “look off” the coverage to sell the backside option didn’t help because he wasn’t able to see the blitz coming in time. I expect we’ll see this play again, as it has potential despite not working here.

Play 11

The Ravens got crazy here by lining up eight defenders on the line of scrimmage. As a result, the Bills brought in extra protection to help block. At the snap, four of those defenders dropped into coverage, taking away any available quick throws for Allen. The Ravens were successful in doing this the entire night because it confused Buffalo’s protection schemes and made it difficult for Allen to find places to throw the ball.

The last two third downs came late in the fourth quarter with backups in the game, and the outcome largely decided. The Bills converted one of the two opportunities.

In Summary

With the Buffalo Bills looking to move quickly beyond their first loss of the season, there are plenty of lessons to take away on both sides of the ball. Addressing these issues will be crucial as they face a high-powered Houston Texans team in Week 5.

The Bills will do their best to spoil the “Stefon Diggs revenge game” narrative and add another W to the win column.

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