Jets vs. 49ers, Week 1 — ‘Monday Night Football’ open thread

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A showdown with legacy to begin the 2024 edition of MNF

The 2024 NFL season is in full swing, and Week 1 concludes with a great matchup under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. The New York Jets are in California to take on the San Francisco 49ers in this 8:15 p.m. EDT spotlight game.

This matchup invites analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, and potential of both teams as they strive to make a statement this season.

This space will serve as your open thread for tonight’s game, plus a deep dive into the game within a game — the odds courtesy of FanDuel, and my pick for tonight’s outcome.

Understanding the Odds with FanDuel

For those new to sports betting, understanding the odds can help enhance the viewing experience. Currently, the odds for this thrilling encounter favor the San Francisco 49ers. The spread is set at San Francisco -3.5, meaning that they need to win by four points or more for bets on them to pay off. Conversely, New York is given the +3.5 margin, which allows them to lose by three points or win outright for those betting on them to win. The line indicates each team’s moneyline odds, with San Francisco set at -184. This suggests that to win $100 on the 49ers, bettors must wager $184. The Jets, listed at +154, allow a profit of $154 on a $100 bet if they pull off the upset.

The Over/Under for total points is pegged at 43.5. This means bettors can wager on whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under that total. Currently, the odds for both options are slightly skewed, with the Over favored at -105 and the Under at -115. This indicates that sportsbooks anticipate a close, competitive game with a score likely hovering around the mid-40s, reflecting both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive strategies.

The Battle of the 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers step into this game with a host of questions surrounding their roster. Quarterback Brock Purdy’s development remains a focal point as he enters his second season as a starter. Last year, Purdy threw an impressive 31 touchdown passes, ranking third in the NFL, showcasing his potential as a leader of the offense. However, his ability to improve on turnovers will be key against a Jets defense looking to make a statement.

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Support for Purdy will hinge on a bolstered offensive line, which, while criticized, has room for improvement. As they aim to protect their young quarterback, how well the offensive line holds up — especially against a formidable Jets pass rush — will define the balance of power in this game. The fear surrounding injuries is palpable, particularly concerning star running back Christian McCaffrey, who impressively racked up 1,400 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards last season. Yet, the risk of injury looms large with increased usage. Just ahead of kickoff, McCaffrey was ruled out for Week 1.

49ers defenders like Nick Bosa, who has established himself as one of the league’s leading pass rushers, will seek to disrupt the Jets’ offensive rhythm. With Bosa and teammate Leonard Floyd combining for 21 sacks over three years, the pressure on the Jets’ offensive line is considerable.

The Jets’ Path Forward

As for the New York Jets, there’s an air of optimism fueled by the arrival of superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Coach Robert Saleh’s familiarity with San Francisco, where he served as the team’s defensive coordinator, could provide the Jets with crucial insights on how to exploit weaknesses in the 49ers’ armor. Notably, the effective utilization of running back Breece Hall, who Bill Belichick has lauded as one of the toughest players to prepare for, may play a significant role in the Jets’ strategy.

Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

While the Jets face a well-rounded San Francisco squad, they aren’t without firepower. With key players healthy and a new offensive dynamic, the Jets will need to strike a balance between aggressive offense and disciplined defense. The outcome of this matchup could set the tone for their season, establishing momentum as they embark on a potentially transformative journey.

Spence’s Bottom Line

Tonight’s narrative is clear: while both teams are seeking to assert themselves, the question remains whether Aaron Rodgers can recapture the form that made him a two-time MVP. Yes, we all remember the numbers from his last full season in 2021: a stellar passer rating of 111.9, complemented by 4,115 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. In contrast, his 2022 season saw those figures dip to a passer rating of 91.1, alongside 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. At 40 years old (41 in December) and coming off a torn Achilles, it’s hard to predict he’ll perform at his peak again.

Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Jets are riding high on the hopes of a Cinderella story this season, but let’s be real — much of their success hinges on Rodgers’ ability to return to form. And looking at how difficult it can be for a veteran quarterback to rebound after a significant injury, my skepticism lingers.

On the flip side, the 49ers, although dealing with their own set of challenges this offseason — including contract holdouts, injuries, and near misses in the playoffs — enter this game with a roster loaded with talent and a coaching staff led by one of the best coaches in the NFL, Kyle Shanahan. The recent turmoil hasn’t dampened their ability to prepare effectively, and if anything, it adds a layer of motivation to prove their critics wrong.

Given these factors, I’m going with the 49ers. They boast a more talented and better-coached team even without Christian McCaffrey, and I expect Shanahan to showcase his strategic genius against the Jets.

In the spotlight of Monday Night Football, I predict a 31-17 victory for San Francisco. The road ahead may be challenging for both squads, but when the lights shine brightly, the 49ers will shine the brightest.

Check out all the NFL Week 1 odds at FanDuel