Following a fourth-consecutive division title last season, McDermott faces an uphill climb to avoid hot-seat discussions even in a “retooling”year.
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott made his way to Orchard Park, NY back in 2017, bringing with him a concerted effort to establish a culture Bills Mafia know loving refer to as “The Process.” In his first season as Buffalo’s head coach, McDermott oversaw the fruits of a gutsy effort by a roster full of players dead-set on finally reaching the playoffs. In the process, the Bills found their way to postseason play, breaking a 17-year playoff drought levied on one of professional sports’ most loyal fan bases.
Since that initial effort, the Buffalo Bills have become a bit of a household name in football circles, and regulars in the NFL’s playoff bracket, being led by Sean McDermott and franchise quarterback Josh Allen. But have they hit their ceiling with One Bills Drive, or is their second act just beginning? Let’s attempt to manage the expectations of McDermott heading into the 2024 NFL season.
State of the scene
Arguably the biggest questions about the Bills ahead of the 2024 NFL season are thus: What exactly is the criteria for a successful or failed season for this team? Is Sean McDermott coaching for his job or setting up his own future?
It may be anecdotal but it seems Bills fans do not see the team taking a step back this upcoming season as many local experts and commenters on this very site have slotted Buffalo in for a fifth-straight division title or at the very least a 10-plus win playoff-bound season.
In his seven seasons leading the Bills, Sean McDermott has accumulated a 73-41 record (5-6 in the playoffs), four division titles, and sits between Andy Reid and Mike Tomlin in all-time win percentage. In a vacuum, these metrics would be enough to satiate Bills Mafia and secure McDermott’s coaching future for years to come, but with a HOF talent at quarterback and limited playoff triumphs, McDermott has lost his benefit of the doubt in terms of evaluating his performance on a macro level.
After breaking the Bills out of the drought era and turning them into perennial playoff contenders, McDermott must now levy Super Bowl aspirations while managing a roster going through a transitional period. Expectations outside of Buffalo are the lowest they’ve been since Josh Allen’s breakout 2020 season, the team has lost foundational pieces on both sides of the ball and the competitiveness of other AFC teams seems to have risen; however, it isn’t clear if a step back for the Bills would allow McDermott to go unpunished.
To effectively analyze McDermott’s future we must dig into the context surrounding him, his contemporaries, and what it takes to be successful in the NFL.
The burden of a “defensive-minded” head coach
Much of the discourse about moving on from McDermott stems from the idea that a defensive head coach in today’s game cannot elevate their team in the same way as an offensive guru. “Run the ball, limit turnovers, play field position” is a mantra that’s been forever branded on a defensive-coordinator-turned-head-coach’s forehead and is contradictory to success in the pass-heavy league we live in now. However, the Bills’ head honcho clearly leans into the trends that lead to wins, and his coaching habits aim to get the most out of the gift that is Josh Allen.
McDermott might be tactically a defensive coach but since the start of the 2020 season, Buffalo is second in early down pass frequency, ranking as high as first in 2021 with this past season being their lowest ranking at eighth. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only team to have outpaced the Bills during this stretch. On fourth-down decisions over that same timeframe, the Bills are seventh in terms of going for it when they should. A far cry from the man who is unofficially credited with the third-most cowardly punt of all time (as of 2018 according to Jon Bois’ Surrender Index) in the 2017 snow bowl game versus the Indianapolis Colts.
Yes, McDermott is handing off the play calling duties to someone else during all this, but a team’s identity and habits are reliant upon its head coach. It is misguided to assume an offensive coach would take this team to a different height when McDermott has proven he can effectively leverage down-and-distances to get the most out of a talented offense.
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If you come at the king, you best not miss
A much more fair criticism of McDermott and his Bills tenure is the lack of deep playoff runs and the inability to conquer the Chiefs outside of the regular season. Obviously, “13 seconds” will loom large over this franchise until they either beat the Chiefs in the playoffs or win the Super Bowl, or both.
Yet, who exactly has been able to stop Kansas City consistently? They are two AFC Championship Game overtime losses away from six straight Super Bowl appearances and the first back-to back champions in 20 years. The answer, however, is everyone else (at least much better than Buffalo to this point). In each of the last four seasons, the opposing offense that eliminated the Bills posted their highest EPA/play of that postseason — often by a wide margin.
This is a worthy measurement of Sean McDermott’s playoff failures as it showcases the Bills falling short in the area of his expertise. Of course, his defenses have been stellar in the regular season since he arrived in 2017, but failing to maintain an elite status during the playoffs (even though it has been against Mahomes and Burrow) is worrying.
With full context, we know Buffalo has had uncontrollable circumstances (key injuries, Damar Hamlin’s incident) come into effect, but it’s difficult not to see these poor performances as a trend. “13 seconds” wasn’t just heartbreaking because it resulted in a loss that game, but because it was the one season during McDermott’s tenure where the offense outpaced the defense’s struggles and the roster stayed mostly healthy.
The lost opportunity to play further into that postseason understandably weighs on Bills fans minds; whereas a loss in the Championship Game or Super Bowl would have been just as painful but, there most likely would not have been a looming “what if” feeling that exists now.
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Suffering from success
Call it the “LeBron Effect” but the farther you get into the playoffs, the more scrutiny you invite for falling short. It’s a huge challenge to win consistently in the NFL and Buffalo stands alone with Kansas City as the only teams with a playoff win in each of the past four seasons.
On the other hand, the Bills would gladly trade that kind of success for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Los Angeles Rams’ championship runs even though both have been surrounded by mediocre seasons. This is what I believe leads to the calls for firing McDermott as fans would rather not feel like they are banging their proverbial head against the wall trying to dethrone the same team (Chiefs) with the same man in charge. Others believe we should be grateful for a coach that pulled the team out of the doldrums of 7-9 seasons and changed the franchise’s standards of success. Sadly, the best answer is somewhere in the middle.
The grass isn’t always greener and right now it’s difficult to pick out who could come into command of this roster and be an upgrade over McDermott. Would Ben Johnson inject some of the Dan Campbell electricity? Are Mike Vrabel or Bill Bellichick the authoritative figures needed to get it done in the playoffs and finally squash the Bills’ Missouri-based demons?
Those aren’t the only people available, but they are some of the only reasonable options that could supplant McDermott and most likely find immediate success. But the smaller details, such as the way the team practices, studies, and bonds would also change. A new coach with an offensive background would have to pick a defensive coordinator and that DC would be expected to carry a top-10 defense like McDermott has for 7 years.
Brandon Beane would either be gone with McDermott or have to draft and scout for a different person’s needs for the first time. These impacts could be a non-factor or they could set the Bills back to where they were before the Allen era, and that’s a gigantic risk to take.
On the other hand, being cautious or fearful of change will hold the franchise back and sometimes coaches hit a wall they can’t move past and the only option is to move on and start fresh just for the sake of change. I do not think Buffalo is at that point just yet, but we are getting closer and having an elite QB makes winning the Super Bowl a time sensitive issue.
Specific criteria for 2024
Last year, McDermott seemed squarely on the hot seat after a 5-5 start and national pundits were calling fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey a “fall guy” for McDermott. Buffalo turned it around and even overachieved with a banged-up defense, but it’s hard to see McDermott getting much leniency from the fan base or media going into 2024 even with an overturned roster.
Cornerstone pieces of the team such as Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse and Stefon Diggs are gone — and while only Diggs’ departure is controversial (in terms of on-field performance), Buffalo will have to replace a lot of leadership, talent, and reliability (when these players were healthy). The AFC appears to be stronger than last year with the emergence of the Houston Texans, the upgrade in coaching with the Los Angeles Chargers, the assumed health of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow, and the consistency of the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and even Miami Dolphins.
The losses on defense shouldn’t be as detrimental as the names suggest and with the return of linebacker Matt Milano and a healthier Von Miller at edge rusher, McDermott will have little excuses on his side of the ball and a finish outside the top 10 in EPA or points per game would be highly disappointing.
The offense will most likely take a step back, at least at the beginning of the season as Allen has to adjust to life without a true WR1 for the defense to focus on. If the struggles are highly apparent, it will be interesting how it falls back on McDermott as he had to fire his OC last season but would not be granted the same ability this season if the wheels fell off. That kind of pressure could lead to hot-seat talks once again, even though he is an aggressive head coach and doesn’t fully run the offense, it would be unlikely for him to be able to fire a third OC in his tenure.
Realistically, the Bills should aim to figure out if they have a championship-level receiver core, enough talent on defense to be flexible based on the opponent, and better establish their weaknesses and strengths going into 2025 where they can be more proactive in free agency. A division title would be a definite success and missing the postseason a definite disappointment, 9-12 wins seems reasonable to expect.
Of course all of these points are moot if the Bills make the playoffs and fail to answer the call on defense. Each individual win should feel sweeter than in years past, and another division title will be more difficult to come by. But regardless of the hurdles Buffalo clears throughout the season, another close playoff loss (especially to KC) would put McDermott immediately on the hot seat going into next year. It’s not necessarily fair, but it is the reality of being a winning NFL coach in Sean McDermott’s position.