A Buffalo Bills mock draft compendium one weekend before the 2024 NFL Draft

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Rochelle Riley column
Max Faulkner/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Who do prognosticators see heading to One Bills Drive?

Buckle in. We’re less than a week away from the 2024 NFL Draft. Very late into the night next Thursday, we should know who the Buffalo Bills have selected in Round 1, unless they find reason to trade out of the first round altogether.

It’s been a busy offseason of NFL football discussion, much of which has been spent daydreaming about how the Bills intend to add talent at wide receiver. Even before the trade that sent Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and left Bills Mafia reeling, the perceived need at receiver was of chief concern due to the loss of Gabe Davis.

Apart from a first-round pick used in a trade up for Stefon Diggs in 2020, the current regime has never used a pick in Round 1 to acquire rookie talent a receiver. Last season was the closest move to this point, when Buffalo moved up a few spots to select receiving tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Is 2024 the year they finally go big for a wide receiver? The class is stocked at the position, so it wouldn’t be the worst idea — though plenty of experts will tell you there’s enough talent to refrain from trading assets in a move up.

With mere days remaining in this mock-draft cycle, how do some of those experts predict things playing out for the Buffalo Bills in Round 1? Let’s take a peek...

Brian Thomas Jr. as the pick

Pick 17: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Jacksonville sends 1-17 in return for 1-28, 4-133, 5-144, and a 2025 2nd

“The Bills need their draft picks to remodel the roster with young, low-priced depth, but general manager Brandon Beane is an aggressive drafter and has never shied away from moving up in the first round to get his guy. Thomas is an outstanding size/speed athlete with better route-running skill than given he’s credit for, and he’d give Josh Allen a new WR1 on offense.”

Pick 28: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

“The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and lost Gabe Davis in free agency and added only short-area receiver Curtis Samuel to the mix. They need a true outside field-stretcher with size who can also replace Diggs as a complete No. 1 and Thomas remains a sweet early target.”

Pick 22 (trade with Eagles): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Philadelphia sends 1-22 in return for 1-28, 4-134, and a 2025 3rd

“If Brian Thomas Jr. does start to fall into this range, it would make sense for Buffalo, who just shipped out their WR1 in Stefon Diggs, to put together a package to move up and secure him.”

“Josh Allen recently listed Thomas as the next best WR in the draft after the top three on ‘The QB Room’ podcast.”

Pick 28: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

“Buffalo sorely needed a second receiver because Gabe Davis just wasn’t cutting it most weeks. Davis is now gone, and so is Stefon Diggs.

Brian Thomas Jr. is a huge receiver with great athleticism and upside.”

Pick 28: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

The Bills could stand to add more receiving playmakers for Josh Allen.

In terms of size, speed, athleticism and upside, Thomas is probably second only to Marvin Harrison Jr. among the wide receiver prospects for the 2024 NFL Draft. The 6-foot-3, 209-pound Thomas has mismatch size and is a fast wideout with the ability to challenge teams vertically. In 2023, he totaled 68 catches for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns. Thomas has a great skill set with a ton of upside to develop. There is some rawness to his game, as he plays small. He needs to play to his size.

Pick 23 (trade with Cardinals): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Trade parameters not shared

“After trading Stefon Diggs, the Bills need to land an impact wideout. So they move a few spots up the board to ensure they get the top wideout after the consensus top three. Thomas’ size-speed combination will pair well with Josh Allen, as well as Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir.”

Pick 19 (trade with Rams): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

“Projected trade: Bills receive Pick No. 19; Rams receive Pick Nos. 28, 128 and a 2025 third-round pick.”

“The Rams’ biggest needs are at edge defender, cornerback and linebacker, but there isn’t necessarily a great value for them at any of those positions at this pick. The Bills, on the other hand, have a high need for a wide receiver after losing Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty and adding Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins. A trade-up will ensure they get whichever remaining receiver they would like, especially when the Pittsburgh Steelers pick next and they could be looking to add a receiver.”

Pick 28: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

“There’s a very high probability Brian Thomas Jr. will go higher, but for me, there’s more I need to see in his game as a separator off the line of scrimmage. More nuance is required in his game, thus dropping him to the Bills here. I do love the fit, however, where Thomas Jr. will immediately become ‘WR1’ next to Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel.”

Pick 28: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

“Frankly, if Thomas is available in the picks 20 to 22 range, I could see GM Brandon Beane jump up to grab him after trading away Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency. Thomas’ physical gifts are off the charts. He’s 6-foot-2, and he ran a 4.33 40-yard-dash while hitting 22.91 mph on the GPS at the combine. Catching passes from Josh Allen could put him on a fast track to super-stardom.”

Pick 21 (trade with Dolphins): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Trade parameters not shared

“To ensure a shot at one of the top five receivers, the Bills move up in a deal with their AFC East foe. The 6-3, 209-pound Thomas figures to bring an explosive element to any passing attack after leading the Football Bowl Subdivision with 17 touchdowns last season while averaging 17.3 yards pre reception. Josh Allen would surely appreciate how much the receiver can open up the offense after the Stefon Diggs trade.”

Pick 17 (via trade with Jaguars): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Jacksonville sends 1-17 to Buffalo for 1-28 and 2-60 in return

“The Bills get aggressive, moving up a whopping 11 spots while giving up a second-round pick to make the trade work. Still, Buffalo is flush with draft capital, having an extra second-rounder in 2025 along with 10 in this year’s draft. By landing Thomas, Buffalo has its best shot of replacing Stefon Diggs.”

Pick 22 (via trade with Eagles): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Philadelphia receives: 1-28, 4-128, 4-133, 5-162

“Buffalo needs to make this move if it’s available. The Bills desperately need a receiver after trading away Stefon Diggs, and if Thomas is still on the board come the early 20s, it’s time for GM Brandon Beane to make his move. Thomas would instantly upgrade Buffalo’s questionable receiving corps.”

Adonai Mitchell as the pick

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Patience pays off here for the Buffalo Bills. There will be a temptation to swing a trade into the top 20 to grab a top wide receiver, but there are quite a few needs that also need to be addressed for the Bills to remain a Super Bowl contender long-term. Adonai Mitchell shows a lot of No. 1 wide receiver flashes, with a ceiling even higher than Brian Thomas Jr., Buffalo will just need to turn those flashes into consistency.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Before the Stefon Diggs trade we would have gladly taken Jackson Powers-Johnson here to reinforce the interior of the Bills’ line. However, now that Josh Allen has lost his biggest playmaker, it’s time to get a new weapon Bills Mafia can cheer on to victory.”

“Adonai Mitchell isn’t quite as fast as his Texas teammate Xavier Worthy, but clocking a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, is still quite impressive. Mitchell has the size and speed to become a No. 1 wideout, and Allen can bring the best out of him in Buffalo.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“The Bills stay put and still get one of the top wideout prospects in the draft. Big, fast and physical, Mitchell garners plenty of interest in league circles. This is lower than where some other mock drafts have him going, but I could see him lingering in the mid-to-late 20s.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Mitchell or Troy Franklin were the two prospects for the Bills here as a receiver must be the choice after the way this offseason has gone. While both players are similar and will need to round out their respective games in the pros, Mitchell is the pick. He has a bit more of an NFL-ready frame and a lot of raw potential to work with. The Bills lost Stefon Diggs as their No. 1 option out wide and Gabe Davis leaves an opening in the deep-threat department. Mitchell could realistically fill both voids… but regardless, he would not end up being the only receiver the Bills select this year.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Wide receiver became a massive need for the Bills when they traded away Stefon Diggs. Fans should not expect Adonai Mitchell to be a 1-to-1 replacement but he has potential to be an impact X receiver down the line.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Everyone wants Buffalo to trade up for a receiver, but I happen to believe they’ll be just fine if they sit tight. I love Mitchell’s speed and versatility. He’s not going to replace Stefon Diggs himself, but adding him to a group that already includes Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel would have to make the Bills feel better about their pass catchers.” — David Helman

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Pick 24. (trade with Cowboys): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Trade parameters not shared

“The Bills get aggressive here and move up to secure the top available receiver. Adonai Mitchell is an explosive playmaker who is going to make a name for himself as a down the field game changer and help retain some offensive explosion for Josh Allen.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Mitchell has elite physical tools at 6-foot-2 with a sub-4.4 40-yard dash. After a breakout season for the Longhorns in which he caught 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns, he could be the perfect replacement for Stefon Diggs.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

“Wide receiver became a massive need for the Bills when they traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. They go with Mitchell here, a player with great size and speed. He becomes an immediate favorite target of Josh Allen.”

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Pick 28: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Pick 22 (via trade with Eagles): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Trade terms:
Bills send: 28th overall pick, 2024 second round pick (60th overall)
Eagles send: 22nd overall pick, 2025 third round pick

“There’s enough wideout talent that Buffalo could stand pat at No. 28 and find a Stefon Diggs replacement. Moving up, however, allows the team a chance to lock in Mitchell, one of 2024’s biggest risers through the pre-draft process. While his consistency is a concern, he’s got all the tools to be a Pro Bowl wideout and his track record of showing up in big games is exactly what the Bills need.”

Troy Franklin as the pick

Pick 28: Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)

“After the Stefon Diggs trade, the Buffalo Bills need a wide receiver. Troy Franklin can be an outside-speed receiver who can bring elements of Diggs and Davis to the field. Franklin has deep speed but can work every area of the field. He was tied for 11th in intermediate receptions in 2023 and spent a career earning more targets than expected.

Franklin fits as an outside receiver, which could help Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel in the slot more often. He can also move around the formation and give the Bills’ offense a bunch of different looks.”

Pick 28: Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)

“Franklin is a true perimeter threat with a great first step to explode into his routes. With Josh Allen’s limitless arm, a field stretcher like Franklin will really open up this offense.”

Pick 28: Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)

“Losing Stefon Diggs certainly creates an area of need for the Bills, even if they’re banking on running the offense through Dalton Kincaid.”

Pick 28: Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)

“The Buffalo Bills need wide receivers, badly, after trading away Stefon Diggs. That likely doesn’t end with this selection, but it begins by adding Oregon’s Troy Franklin. A long, speedy deep threat, Franklin won’t replace everything that Buffalo lost with Diggs, but he was phenomenally productive in college and can get off press coverage when he sees it.”

Xavier Worthy as the pick

Pick 28: Xavier Worthy, WR (Texas)

“The Bills could make an aggressive move up the board to find a new weapon for Josh Allen after parting with Stefon Diggs. If they stay put, snagging the 40-yard dash king to take the top off defenses and catch Allen’s rockets would be exhilarating.”

Pick 28: Xavier Worthy, WR (Texas)

“The Bills desperately need to find a vertical threat, something the needed even before trading Stefon Diggs. Worthy ran the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine and was a really good vertical threat for the Longhorns.”

Pick 28: Xavier Worthy, WR (Texas)

Pick 28: Xavier Worthy, WR (Texas)

Xavier Legette as the pick

Pick 28. Bills trade to Panthers who select: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Carolina sends 2-33, 4-102, 2025 4th in return for 1-28

“Waiting for their wide receiver target seems like a recipe for failure, so moving up to get their guy to go opposite Diontae Johnson is necessary for Bryce Young’s development. When engaged, Mitchell is one of the best receivers in the class. The challenge is keeping him engaged.”

Pick 33. Buffalo Bills select: Xavier Legette, WR (South Carolina)

Pick 28 (Bills trade to Cardinals, which selects): Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Arizona trades 2-35 and 3-90 to Buffalo for 1-28 and 5-160

“It’s not our place to discuss Buffalo’s motivations in trading down when virtually all the popular press has then desperately seeking a starting caliber WR for Josh Allen. Dig a little deeper and you find their true intentions.”

With Pick 35, the Buffalo Bills select: Xavier Legette, WR (South Carolina)

“The Bills are a true wildcard in the first round. They have the ammo to trade into the top-ten for Rome Odunze (yes, please!), they could sit tight at 28, or they could trade down to add a 3rd-rounder. “

“Here, I elected to trade back as a trade up into the top ten would require giving away picks while the Bills are in the process of building Josh Allen 2.0. WR Ladd McConkey is my favorite WR outside of the top 3 but he got sniped just before the Bills’ pick. Xavier Leggette is a receiver the Bills do like. His size and his ability to create after the catch are both attractive to Brandon Beane and Co. If Leggette had more than one year of production he could easily be a top-15 pick.” — Kennedy Paynter, Senior Draft Analyst

Other Wide Receivers as the pick

Pick 8: Malik Nabers, WR (LSU)

trade parameters: Bills send 1-28, 2-60, 2025 1st, for 1-08, 4-109 in return

“How about someone other than one of the top edge rushers for the Falcons? As for the Bills, they are too tempted by Nabers’ fall and send No. 28, No. 60 and a 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta, whose GM Terry Fontenot does have ties to Buffalo’s offensive coordinator Joe Brady and new quarterback coach Ronald Curry from their time together in New Orleans. Beyond the chance to draft the electric LSU wideout, the Bills get No. 109 in return from the Falcons. After this move, Atlanta would be overflowing with early draft capital.”

Pick 28: Ladd McConkey, WR (Georgia)

“Some teams have him as the fifth-best receiver in the draft, and he could very well not be here when Buffalo picks. After the Stefon Diggs trade, it’s obvious what Buffalo has to do.”

Pick 4: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Ohio State)

Bills send 1-28, 2-60, 4-128, 5-160, and a 2025 1st and 2nd to Cardinals for 1-04 and a 2025 4th

“Harrison, the son of Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison, was the best WR on the field last season. His stock has slipped some because he skipped offseason workouts but his tape is enough. The Bills are under pressure to win a Super Bowl and need a No. 1 wideout after trading Stefon Diggs.”

Pick 28: Keon Coleman, WR (Florida State)

“Somebody will take a chance on the body control and ball skills that Florida State’s Keon Coleman possesses. If anybody can unleash that ability, it’s Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.”

Option A (trade up)

Pick 6: (Giants trade to Bills, who pick)
Malik Nabers, WR (LSU) or Rome Odunze, WR (Washington)

Giants receive: 1-28, 2-60, 4-128, 2025 first-round pick (via Texans), 2026 third-round pick

“Could the Bills make the same sort of move up (as the Falcons did for Julio Jones) for Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze? There’s certainly a need for them at wide receiver after losing Gabe Davis in free agency and trading Stefon Diggs for a second-round pick. And unlike the Giants, who are in somewhat of a rebuilding period given Daniel Jones’ uncertain future and their disappointing 2023 campaign, Bills GM Brandon Beane probably wants someone who can help Josh Allen win right now. Calling up former assistant Joe Schoen to try to make a dramatic move into the top 10 for one of the top wideouts makes sense.”

Option B (trade down)

Pick 28: (Bills trade to Raiders) — Buffalo receives 2-44, 3-77

“Earlier, I made the case for the Bills moving way up the board and landing one of the top three wideouts. I actually prefer this side of the coin, where they lean into the depth and variety of this class and take more than one swing at wide receiver in the top 100. GM Brandon Beane would have Nos. 44, 60 and 77 to work with, and that should allow him to make more moves around Day 2 in the hopes of finding a difference-maker or two for Josh Allen.”

Non-WR picks

Pick 28: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE (Western Michigan)

“In Kneeland, Buffalo adds a productive, athletic edge defender to chase the top AFC quarterbacks.”

Pick 28: Tyler Guyton, OT (Oklahoma)

“Guyton has all the tools, but he’s likely going to need a little bit of time before he becomes an NFL starter. Luckily for the Bills, they have quarterback Josh Allen to raise the floor of their offense while Guyton gets adjusted to the speed of the NFL game.”

(Draft run as though every college football player was eligible)

Pick 28: Quinyon Mitchell, CB (Toledo)

“While Buffalo certainly needs to add help at receiver, Mitchell’s value here was too good to ignore. He’s been incredibly dominant over the past couple of years. He finished as the nation’s highest-graded cornerback in 2022 and 2023 and has the most forced incompletions in that span (35). And the Bills need help at cornerback after losing Tre’Davious White this offseason.”

Pick 28: Laiatu Latu, EDGE (UCLA)

“While the Bills have a massive hole at the wide receiver position after trading away Stefon Diggs earlier this month, they can’t pass up the value in Latu. Von Miller has been a massive bust since joining the team. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost their top sack producer to free agency after Leonard Floyd signed with the 49ers.”

TL;DR

Almost 3,900 words to this point is a lot of copy to read, so I understand if you didn’t get through it all. But what can we learn from these 45 mock drafts? Maybe nothing, but some trends emerged...

  • 45 different mock drafts, 41 times the Bills draft a WR
  • Adonai Mitchell was the pick 14 times
  • Adonai Mitchell landed with trade team (Panthers) at 28 once
  • Brian Thomas Jr. was the pick 13 times
  • Brian Thomas Jr. landed with the trade team (Cardinals) at 28 once
  • Troy Franklin was the pick 4 times
  • Xavier Worthy was the pick 4 times
  • Xavier Legette was the pick 2 times (both in trades back to Round 2)
  • Rome Odunze was the pick 1 time (though only in a toss-up with Nabers)
  • Malik Nabers was the pick outright 1 time (plus a toss up pick between he and Rome Odunze)
  • Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman were each the pick once
  • Non-WRs picked (1 time each): Laiatu Latu (EDGE), Marshawn Kneeland (EDGE), Quinyon Mitchell (CB), Tyler Guyton (OT)
  • The Bills traded out of pick 28 a total of 14 times, trading back and out of the first round 3 times

I would be shocked if the Buffalo Bills decided to trade back if wide receiver is their top plan. Why, it’s a deep draft... right? Absolutely. But Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell “feel” like far different prospects than Xavier Legette. And that’s fine. But the Bills don’t just need a WR2 — they need someone capable of everything, and that’s what a WR1 represents.

We’ve been led to believe that a WR1 isn’t necessary for the offense, and in many ways that could be true. But Josh Allen’s ascendance very nearly correlated with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. A bunch of players who are best-suited in WR2 roles (or further back) may not have what it takes to dominate when it matters most.

As such, it’s clear to see that most people picking for Buffalo believe it has to be wide-receiver-or-bust as early as possible. There are some fun picks in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, but trading up to land either isn’t necessary. That’s where there’s room to pivot with the pick. The Bills don’t have to land one of the consensus top three at the position — they just need to find someone who fits the bill.

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