In a pivotal offseason, only bold moves matter. So, let’s trade up!
With the 2024 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, we’ll soon know which young players the Buffalo Bills will add to their continuing pursuit of a Super Bowl title. In a year where the Bills seem poised to transform the roster after moving on from multiple veteran mainstays, the Bills could truly go in any direction with this year’s draft.
In this series, we’ll look to spark discussion and make the case for the Bills to do one of three things: either stand pat in the draft without making trades, trade down to acquire more picks, or trade up in the first round to select a particular future star. Clearly, the Bills won’t do only one of these things in real life; however, there are legitimate cases to be made for multiple avenues here, and we wanted to explore a few options in the lead-up to the NFL Draft.
Some ground rules and disclaimers before we begin. We used the draft simulator at Pro Football Network to provide a consistent, easy-to-use database on which we could base our scenarios. Obviously, none of the draft simulators available are perfect, and they each value prospects differently, so players who are available at particular spots in the draft very well may not be available at that time in reality. In the specific scenarios written about here, we only followed one strategy — so in the trade-back scenario, we did not trade up at all, and in the stand-pat scenario, we didn’t trade at all.
Finally, a note on how I valued Buffalo’s areas of need. I approached this exercise knowing that the Bills absolutely need a stud wide receiver, someone capable of starting right away. I also know that the team need a starting safety, rotational pieces at defensive end and defensive tackle, and a center. Those are my top five needs, and they come in that exact order. I valued a safety higher than the defensive linemen because of the way the Bills rotate along the defensive line — and the way they don’t rotate in the defensive secondary.
And with that, here’s our second scenario, which includes a world where general manager Brandon Beane makes a bold move, trading way up in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Case for Trading Up
There are a few ways in which the Bills could trade up in this year’s draft. One option is to try to trade up to the middle of the first round, targeting a wideout like LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. In this particular scenario, however, we traded up even farther to nab one of the draft’s best receivers.
Why would we do that? The reasoning is obvious. The Bills have a gaping hole on offense following the Stefon Diggs trade, and given that the team isn’t keen on wasting quarterback Josh Allen’s prime, they want to add play makers to the offense. There are three receivers who are considered a sure thing this year, and if the Bills can nab any one of them, there is a case to be made for doing it.
Given Buffalo’s recent run of regular-season success and postseason disappointment, this isn’t the offseason to make safe little moves. The Bills have already made a series of bold moves by releasing longstanding veterans (cornerback Tre’Davious White, center Mitch Morse, and safety Jordan Poyer among them) and moving on from other pivotal pieces of the last few years (Diggs and fellow wide receiver Gabe Davis). The Bills need to add high-end talent, and they need to do so now.
One of the reasons many would argue against trading up in a draft would be the cost — in this case, draft capital — to do so. That theory generally involves people associating trading up in a draft with risk. What happens if the player acquired is a bust? What happens if you move up for a wideout like Sammy Watkins, but watch receivers like Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. go later in the same round?
If you’re trading up, you’re thinking that it’s better to try and hit a home run than it is to string some singles together and hope for the best. Given that many of the late-round draft choices that would be used in a trade-up scenario would be used on players who are long-shots to make the roster, it isn’t a bad idea to swing for a player you really love.
In this draft scenario, one of the players I really love fell to a zone where I had to move up to draft him.
The Draft
I had it in my head that I was moving up for a wideout. I targeted the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the No. 8 overall pick, as my team — but I just couldn’t come to an agreement with them. After they rejected four offers from me, I saw that they sent the pick to the Las Vegas Raiders, who chose quarterback J.J. McCarthy. At that point, I figured that the Chicago Bears would take Rome Odunze, the Washington wide receiver I coveted, at No. 9, thereby crushing my dreams for the situation. However, when they chose Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner, I immediately put together a package to ship to the New York Jets that was too good for them to pass up — even with a need at receiver themselves.
Admittedly, I gave up too much to move from pick No. 28 to pick No. 10. I shipped a total of five draft picks to the Jets, giving them pick No. 28, No. 128, and No. 133 this year, as well as Buffalo’s first-round choice and Minnesota’s second round choice in 2025. After I was rebuffed so many times by the Falcons, I wanted to make sure that I sealed the deal this time.
The Jets’ pick is worth 369 points by the Rich Hill trade value chart. The package I sent was equal to around 394 points (I counted the 2025 picks as approximately one-half of what Buffalo’s 2024 picks are worth in the first and second round). I also had the Jets tack on their two seventh-round picks this year, which meant that I still had 10 draft choices in this simulation. It was definitely an overpay, but when the return is Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, it was an overpay I felt comfortable making.
Odunze is the real deal. He’s either going to be the second or third receiver off the board this year, and he’s the kind of big-bodied technician who can instantly plug into the Bills’ offense and fill a huge need. He would be a perfect complement to Buffalo’s other top wideouts in Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel, and his ability to go up and win contested catches would make him an instant favorite of Josh Allen’s.
The key to that trade-up, for me anyway, was keeping pick No. 60 this season. And with that choice, I addressed a big hole at safety by selecting Miami’s Kamren Kinchens. Admittedly, I might have screwed the pooch here, as Utah’s Cole Bishop is another tantalizing player who is definitely the better athlete. However, I went with Kinchens thanks to his ability as a deep-third player, which is exactly the kind of safety the Bills need right now. With Taylor Rapp expected to hold down one starting safety spot, it’s imperative that the Bills find a player who can cover the deep-third of the field, and what Kinchens lacks in overall speed, he makes up for in instincts and play-making ability.
I had a long wait after this pick, and given that I’d already used so much draft capital to move up to draft Odunze, I wasn’t about to use more to move up further. That meant that I had to hope some players fell to me in the middle rounds, and that’s exactly what happened. I picked Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright at No. 144 overall, a player who I love and who I discussed a little bit in the article where we stood pat in the draft. Then, I double-dipped at defensive tackle at picks No. 160 and No. 163, taking Baylor defensive tackle Gabe Hall and Northern Iowa defensive tackle Khristian Boyd, respectively.
Hall and Boyd both fit what the Bills want to do, as Hall is a high-motor penetrator who can rotate in as a three-tech, and Boyd is a long, big-bodied space-eater who would be a great rotational piece as the one-tech. With Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson, and DeShawn Williams already in the fold, adding two strong rookies to the room would make for great depth and competition, and it would set the Bills up well for 2024 and beyond.
In the sixth and seventh rounds, I took some chances on high-energy guys and high-athlete types, as well. In round six, I bolstered the defensive end rotation with Washington State’s Brennan Jackson at pick No. 200. Then, I took my second wideout by selecting Cornelius Johnson from Michigan at No. 204. Jackson isn’t the most athletic edge player, but he’s a high-motor type who could find success in the Shaq Lawson role with the Bills. Johnson is such an intriguing prospect given his athletic profile, and given his willingness as a run blocker, I’m willing to give him the chance to refine his route-running as the fifth or sixth wideout during his rookie season.
Finally, in the seventh round, I added some more to the trenches. I took a flier on UCLA’s Gabriel Murphy at pick No. 248. Given that he’s been graded as high as a fourth-rounder in some instances, I felt like it was a good risk even though he has limited length and athleticism. With the final two picks in the draft, I added some depth to the offensive line. I took Wyoming offensive tackle Frank Crum at No. 256 and South Carolina center Nick Gargiulo at No. 257. In Crum, I basically found a Spencer Brown clone. The Wyoming mammoth is 6’8” and 313 pounds. He’s wildly athletic and has experience at both left tackle and right tackle. Gargiulo is a prospect I’d watch for with the Bills. He’s a great athlete who plays center, but he’s also played every position along the offensive line. He reminds me a lot of Ryan Bates, and given the Bills’ propensity to carry “Swiss Army knife” types as reserve offensive lineman, he’s worth a flier at the end of the draft.
So, after trading a rather large haul to move up 18 spots in the draft, our draft class would look like this:
- Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (No. 10 overall via trade with New York Jets)
- Kamren Kinches, S, Miami (No. 60 overall)
- Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee (No. 144 overall)
- Gabe Hall, DT, Baylor (No. 160 overall)
- Khristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa (No. 163 overall)
- Brennan Jackson, DE, Washington State (No. 200 overall)
- Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan (No. 204 overall)
- Gabriel Murphy, DE, UCLA (No. 248 overall)
- Frank Crum, OT, Wyoming (No. 256 overall via trade with New York Jets)
- Nick Gargiulo, C, South Carolina (No. 257 overall via trade with New York Jets)
Full details on the trade to acquire Odunze:
- Bills receive pick No. 10, 256, 257 in 2024 NFL Draft
- Jets receive pick No. 28, 128, 133 in 2024 NFL Draft, BUF first-round pick in 2025, MIN second-round pick in 2025 (acquired by Buffalo for Stefon Diggs via Houston Texans)
Alright, Bills fans, here’s the moment of truth. Was it worth the price to move up to draft Odunze? Is trading up your preferred method of operation during this year’s draft? Would you rather trade up for a different receiver? Is there a player who isn’t a wideout that you’d think is worth trading up to acquire? If the Bills traded up and this were the haul they ended up with this season, how would you feel? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Northern Iowa defensive tackle Khristian Boyd
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