What level are the Bills looking to maintain or improve on in the coming year?
Free agency is coming. While that often means excitement over new additions, it can also mean the loss of significant contributors. With the Buffalo Bills in a less-than-ideal cap situation, we’re approaching our annual free-agent review a bit differently this year. While there’s always been an undertone of “this player may need to be replaced,” we’re going to be leaning way harder than simply into undertone on that aspect. For this upcoming season, let’s examine the following question:
How high was the bar set by...
Running back Ty Johnson
Stats and whatnot
Let’s level with each other for a second. I don’t think I’m going to have time to do one of these for every free agent who was on the Buffalo Bills’ roster in 2023 before free agency starts next week and takes some of these guys off the board. I’ve been trying to stick to the bigger names on the list for that reason. So why Ty Johnson? Well there are a couple reasons.
There weren’t a ton of offensive players on the list of free agents, so he helps add some balance. Primarily, though, Ty Johnson highlights Buffalo’s current cap situation. Buffalo will need some bargain wins and Johnson may be one of those. Johnson had the third-highest “not-Josh Allen” amount of carries on the team behind James Cook and Latavius Murray.
Cook is obviously ahead on the depth chart. Murray is also a free agent and not as young as Johnson. Toward the end of the year and into the playoffs, Johnson had a higher number of carries than Murray. While the league often sees running backs as interchangeable, if Buffalo liked what they saw and can make a bargain deal, perhaps Johnson is one they’ll look to retain. Let’s check some playoff film!
The Film
Play 1 — 3rd & Short
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Listed one inch shorter and 20 lbs heavier than James Cook, there’s an argument on paper that Ty Johnson might be more of a bruising-style running back. I don’t see a case for it on film with the Bills. I wouldn’t expect anyone to push this pile, for the record, but we’ve all seen ones who may have tried. Needing only two yards, maybe the scrum gets it. Or you can do what Johnson does, which is bounce off to the side and dive forward for the yards. This tendency looks more like the “natural” Ty Johnson to me.
Play 2 — Decisive
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When we’re talking about exploiting lanes being covered by elite athletes, a fraction of a second is enormous. Hesitation when making a decision can be a death knell for a running back. From what I watched, Johnson rarely hesitates. On this play, the only pause is me freezing the frame. I saw two choices and Johnson may have as well but never acts like there was a second option.
Play 3 — Lane shifting
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This is similar to the first play but rather than needing a couple yards for a first, Buffalo could use a chunk play. Johnson remained on his feet and showed a little wiggle to create that chunk.
Play 4 — All eyes on Josh
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Little things can go into the right fit. In Buffalo, everyone on offense needs to be aware that the play ain’t over until Josh Allen says it is. Johnson followed Allen with his eyes, and then his legs as Allen charged ahead. Allen narrowly avoided a shoe-string tackle, had two defenders itching to take him on, and barely threw the ball backwards. Despite living on the edge of three different razors, Allen and Johnson were on the same page for a nice pickup.
Play 5 — RAC
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I’ve been using “YAC” for years, so forgive me if I’m slow to catch up the change to “RAC” like head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane seem to be using these days. Of course I have to highlight why arm strength matters. It’s always about the sideline throws if you ask me. Back to Johnson, he has a big cushion to work from and could be satisfied with “merely” the first down, but cuts to the side and gains some YAC thanks to his ability to RAC.
Play 6 — No hesitation, no surrender
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Another reason I like highlighting Ty Johnson’s decision making is because the guy has some wheels. The best internet sleuthing I could do showed that Johnson didn’t record an official combine 40 time. An unofficial Pro Day time of 4.26 would have been the fastest had it occurred at the combine. More than likely Johnson ran somewhere in the 4.3 range, which is still very fast. James Cook ran a 4.42 in the 40 and was in the 90th percentile for skill position players. Johnson is likely even faster.
The Final Straw
My Judo instructor used to lecture us on the value of exercise. He’d say “Power beats nothing*. Technique beats power. Technique plus power beats everything.” The idea is that to be the best, you should work your butt off to have it all. If for some reason you can’t have it all, his lecture let us know what thing we should prioritize. Let’s be candid for a second and just say that Ty Johnson doesn’t have it all, and I’m not claiming the Bills have a diamond that somehow the Detroit Lions and New York Jets just happened to not pick up on.
That said, if we’re triaging valuable skills for a running back, Johnson’s decisiveness and speed are high on my list of things Buffalo should desire for in a backup running back. Whether or not it’s Ty Johnson himself, this isn’t a bad floor for the Bills to look for.
*In this case, “nothing” means, no power and/or technique.