Alternate realities are clearly visible from Sunday’s win
In the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), there is a phenomenon described as “The Sacred Timeline.” This is the idea that events laid out in chronological order over a timeline are set in stone, and any deviation from them is quickly snuffed out by an organization known as the “Time Variance Authority” (TVA).
If someone is “supposed to” go right when they turn down a dormitory hallway and instead they go left, they have now created a branching alternate reality. This is called a “nexus event” in the MCU. In one reality, they go left and bump into the person they will marry and have a child with. In the other, they never meet this person, and this new reality is not “the plan,” so a member of the TVA will arrive to prune the branch of this timeline so it never strays too far from the “true” order of events.
For those people who believe the NFL to be scripted, this would be a phenomenon with which they would be familiar.
Marvel created an entire television series dedicated to the idea of “what if,” where one decision made by a different character, if not corrected by the TVA, could have led to a completely different universe. It’s a fun way to think about established lore in retrospect, like “what if Bruce Wayne’s parents take a different way home” or “what if Peter Parker stays home sick from his field trip to the lab.”
The truth is, however, that there are nexus events that happen in every single football game, and despite the conspiracy theorists among us, there is no evidence of the presence of a giant collective hand guiding the results of every single NFL football game. These events greatly shift the path the game is on and often results in different outcomes for drives.
Knowing that drives are in limited supply in the NFL, these events serve as pivot points for the remainder of the game, and further reinforce how much variance exists in pro football. “Parity” is a word tossed out frequently in regards to the game, and “any given Sunday” is a mantra that has existed in the NFL space for a long time.
But while these terms are used often to describe how tight the margins are in terms of talent, and the random bounce of the oblong ball or a split second binary decision can only alter the outcome because of this small variance in overall talent, our conversations often take place as if the games are played on paper. We focus on paper parity and often fail to go back and acknowledge things that went one way that could have easily gone the other way.
Let’s dive into some of the nexus events that occurred during the Buffalo Bills’ victory over the Miami Dolphins.
11:45 left in the second quarter
1st & 10 — Bills ball on Dolphins’ 11-yard line
Josh Allen’s pass short to the right is intercepted by Jalen Ramsey at the Miami three-yard line
The Bills were tied with the Dolphins 3-3 at this moment. This was an alert off a run play the Bills have run before this season. In one instance, the ball famously bounced off the back of Keon Coleman’s helmet. In another, he broke a tackle and went for a huge gain.
The pendulum swung back the other direction, and a well-place ball careened off Coleman’s arms for the Ramsey interception. There’s a strong probability that the Bills score a touchdown on that play if Coleman catches the ball.
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The Bills likely kick the extra point after this touchdown and go up 10-3 on the Dolphins.
If this happens and all other plays after remain the same, the Bills are up 19-10 instead of 12-10 when they’re facing 4th & Goal on the Dolphins’ one-yard line with 7:24 left to go in the third quarter. Do they still go for it up by nine or do they kick the field goal?
A few minutes later, when the Dolphins are faced with a 4th & 4 with 3:02 remaining in the third quarter, do they still elect to take the field goal or do they go for it? Given how Buffalo’s defense played against Miami on Sunday, would they have stopped the Fins?
Multiple decision points after the play were directly influenced by the result of that one play.
One minute to go in the second quarter
1st and 10 — Bills’ ball on Dolphins’ 22-yard line
Josh Allen throws short to James Cook, who drops it
James Cook, based on the positioning of the defenders, may have housed this pass if he catches it. The Bills ended up with three points on this drive (and another nexus event occurred shortly after this one, see below).
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35 seconds to go in the second quarter
1st & 20 — Bills’ ball on Dolphins’ 21-yard line
Josh Allen scrambles 21 yards for a TD. 10-yard penalty on right guard O’Cyrus Torrence for holding; no TD
This is a four-point-swing penalty, which pop up across the NFL all the time with nullified touchdowns. This was the second of back-to-back holding penalties on Buffalo, neither of which were holding. The Bills had to throw multiple times after this penalty, with Josh Allen having just banged his throwing hand earlier in the drive.
Running the ball was no issue for Allen after the hand issue, but both his throws immediately after this penalty were really short of their intended placement and the Bills ended up kicking a field goal on the drive.
6:03 left in the third quarter
3rd & 3 — Dolphins’ ball on Bills’ 48-yard line
Tagovailoa short pass incomplete for Jaylen Waddle (broken up by Rasul Douglas) Offside penalty on Von Miller; first down Dolphins
The Dolphins are down 12-10 at this point, but given the amount of time left in the game, they may have decided to punt if Miller doesn’t jump offside. They converted a fourth-down later in the drive from a closer distance, and eventually kicked a field goal to go up 13-12 on Buffalo. If the Bills don’t give up three points on that drive, Ray Davis’ receiving touchdown puts them up 18-10. They may decide to kick the extra point instead of going for two to go up by nine.
Now the Dolphins are down by two scores instead of one. Do they feel a little urgency and decide to abandon their effective running game in favor of downfield passing that the Bills defense wants them to try? The fact is that the difference remained within one score the entire game. This one play may have changed that and altered play calling moving forward.
7:13 left in the fourth quarter
3rd & 6 — Bills’ ball on Dolphins’ 7-yard line
Josh Allen pass incomplete short right to Keon Coleman; penalty on Miami’s Siran Neal for defensive holding; automatic first down Buffalo
The game was tied 20-20 at this point. If Neal isn’t called for that holding penalty, the Bills are highly likely to kick the field goal to go up 23-20. That would have made the Dolphins’ touchdown on their next drive a score to take the lead 27-23. This means that when Josh Allen gets the ball back with 1:38 left to go in the game, the Bills need a touchdown to win it, not a field goal. The probability of success for that goes down significantly.
But Neal did get called for the penalty. The Bills scored a touchdown two plays later, the Fins drove to tie the game, and Tyler Bass hit a game-winning 61-yard field goal. It’s a four-point play just like above, only this time inverted.
Speaking of that final Bills drive...
54 seconds left to go in the fourth quarter
3rd & 9 — Bills’ ball on their own 31-yard line
Josh Allen throws incomplete deep left to Keon Coleman; penalty on Miami’s Jordan Poyer for unnecessary roughness; automatic first down for Buffalo plus 15 yards.
Instant replay confirmed this as a penalty for Poyer, who launched and made contact with his helmet to the facemask of Keon Coleman.
#Bills Keon Coleman R wrist/forearm injury.
— Banged Up Bills (@BangedUpBills) November 3, 2024
Thought this was going to be a head check.
Looking at replay, looks like Poyer’s helmet/shoulder pad makes contact with Coleman’s wrist/forearm.
AT holding arm walking to locker room. Likely getting x-rays. pic.twitter.com/13MaWLIfk6
But things like this happen all the time in the NFL without being called. Replay assist doesn’t add or subtract any of these calls in a game, and the Bills were on the wrong side of a particularly egregious personal-foul call earlier in the game when Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert lowered his helmet and made contact with the crown to the helmet of safety Taylor Rapp, who was inexplicably called for a penalty.
What if the refs don’t call the penalty? The Bills are now at 4th & 9 on their own 31-yard line with about 45 seconds to go. They’re going to punt, and a rough kick or a good return means the Dolphins don’t have very far to go to get into field goal range for their own game-winning kick.
Any of these plays, if their outcomes are different, could drastically change the outcome of the game. With the average margin of victory in the NFL year after year usually hovering in the nine-point range, two or three of these plays can be the difference between winning and losing for an NFL team. If we’re being honest, any play can change the outcome of a game. One missed block here, a dropped pass there...every play contains within it the potential to alter the fate of a football game. Some are just more easily visible than others.
In a sport that encourages week-long reactions to small sample sizes, it’s one of the reasons it’s so important to value specificity in opinions and meaningful samples of which the opinions are built. Results-based opinions that vary drastically off results that are inches away from being different and samples that are small will put you on the roller coaster of the NFL season week after week.
...and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!