Buffalo Bills’ best surprises, biggest disappointments four weeks into 2024 season

October 05, 2024

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Arizona Cardinals v Buffalo Bills — Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images

A newer cast of characters has the Bills at 3-1 but individual performances have been scattered

Entering the 2024 season, the Buffalo Bills’ roster hadn’t been this unsettled since 2019, with expectations of the playoffs but an understanding that the turnover within the team could cause more struggles than anticipated. After a 3-0 start it felt like Buffalo’s coaches had found all the answers.

Then came the punch in the mouth from Baltimore, which has allowed us to be a little more objective on where these Bills stand in consideration of the whole season. There aren’t many teams built like the Ravens, so the fear of being a fraudulent team isn’t there. But losing the way Buffalo did helped shine a spotlight on those players who’ve shown up already and where the team is deficient after four weeks.

As such, let’s take a look at six current Buffalo Bills players, highlight three players who’ve pleasantly surprised and three who we should be worried about — accompanied by a scaled panic meter.

Buffalo Bills’ most surprising players

CB Christian Benford

Now a fulltime starter three years after being selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft, Benford has surpassed every expectation the team had of him. If that wasn’t enough, this season Benford has inserted himself into conversations about the best cover corners in the NFL.

Through four games, Benford is second in the league in coverage EPA allowed (-12.6) and fourth (out of cornerbacks with 50-plus snaps) in catch rate over expected allowed (-17%). With the loss of Tre’Davious White, the lack of emergence out of Kaiir Elam, and the injury to Taron Johnson, cornerback could have become a weak point on defense. However, with Benford and fellow standout defensive back Ja’Marcus Ingram, it’s become the backbone unit.

The matchups will only get harder from here on out as Benford must deal with the high-powered offenses of the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers in 2024.

WR Mack Hollins

“Shoeless” Mack Hollins has become a fan favorite in short time due to his eccentrically engaging off-field personality but his contributions to the team on game days have proven to be more than many imagined when he signed in April. Hollins has run more routes than any Bills player this season, but he has only four catches (tied with running back Ty Johnson). Despite that, Hollins’ skillset has obviously worked with what offensive coordinator Joe Brady want to do on offense.

More often than not, Hollins has been tasked with being the clear-out guy, running routes designed to occupy defenders’ space and get a different receiver open. His efficiency doesn’t show up well on stat sheets, but he’s fulfilling his role well and creating open targets for quarterback Josh Allen. Hollins’ selfless contributions are key to the “everybody eats” mantra.

The most encouraging new with Hollins is that he should be able to contribute more significantly to the passing game as a receiver because just two years ago, he led a Las Vegas Raiders team with Davante Adams in receiving EPA and posted 57 receptions for 690 yards and four touchdowns. Hollins was able to snag a touchdown in Week 1 and should see ample opportunities to become a legitimate downfield threat this season.

OG Alec Anderson

Though Anderson has been a part of the Bills’ system since 2022, this is his first season playing NFL games. Despite the lack of experience, Anderson has become an integral part of the offense, being used as a blocking Swiss army knife.

Through four games, Anderson has posted the highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade of any Bills offensive linemen, and he’s been a very useful tool in Joe Brady’s scheme. Anderson has logged five-plus snaps at every offensive line position except right tackle but he’s been most frequently used as a sixth linemen or interior tight end, with 29 snaps at the position.

Anderson’s play has allowed the Bills to effectively use 12 personnel this season and be a more balanced offense with five of seven rushing touchdowns scored this year being directed at the ends of the defense (where Anderson would be lining up as a tight end).

His utility was also highlighted during Week 4, when the Bills struggled as center Connor McGovern was forced out for a bit due to medical evaluations. That left Anderson tasked with playing center for a number of plays against Baltimore. Since he is technically playing tight end, don’t be surprised if a trick play near the goal line ends with Anderson catching a touchdown at some point this year.

Bills’ biggest disappointments of September

WR Curtis Samuel

I previously highlighted Joe Brady’s use of Samuel in the offense and how his constant motion and varied alignment have been useful for the Bills in identifying defenses to catch them off guard. That said, Samuel’s schematic usefulness hasn’t translated to enough production.

The trick play last Sunday has drawn a ton of ire — but it wasn’t so much the fault of Samuel as it was more due to poor play design. Samuel was dealing with turf toe prior to the start of the regular season but he’s been active all four games and hasn’t been limited at practice, so his usage seems purposeful.

Samuel is coming off two seasons in Washington of 60-plus catches and 600-plus yards with an average depth of target (ADOT) of seven yards. His ADOT this season is just 3.7 and he has only been targeted 10-plus yards down the field once.

The Bills are in desperate need for some deep-threat ability on offense and Samuel has the tools to be that guy so it’s likely unfair to place the blame solely on his shoulders. Samuel’s versatility is a bonus but the team must start allowing him to play like a traditional wide receiver at least some of the time. They have to understand that he’s proven to be an effective route runner in the past.

Panic meter 3/10

K Tyler Bass

This one isn’t surprising but it sure is concerning. Last season, Bass posted the lowest field goal percentage (82.8%) of his career since his rookie season. His infamous miss at home against the Kansas City Chiefs during the playoffs was the last meaningful play for both Bass and the team’s 2023 season.

In 2024, Bass has already missed two low-pressure kicks under 50 yards. It’s worth speculating whether his job security may be teetering on the wrong side of the line should he miss another relatively routine kick.

The Bills already worked out two kickers after his 43-yard miss in Week 2 at the Miami Dolphins. Despite that move, the team would rather see Bass pull it together instead of entering play at the kicker roulette table.

Bass hasn’t been asked to make a high-stress kick since that miss in the playoffs. In a league that's experiencing a kicker revolution, it’s a problem if a team can’t trust their kicker to convert in key situations.

Panic meter 9/10

DT Ed Oliver

Ed Oliver is the player on this list Buffalo’s front office has invested the most in. As a former first-round pick and signing a four-year $68 million dollar extension last summer, it’s about time he became more of a household name league-wide.

Oliver had a nice 2023 but through four games this season, he is ranked 109th in among defensive linemen per PFF grading. If current statistical projections doesn’t deviate, he’s on pace for career lows in run stops (three so far this season, had 32 last year) and tackles.

With edge rusher Von Miller’s four-game suspension looming large, Oliver’s production needs to ramp up sooner rather than later. Buffalo’s defense needs him to be more of a game changer and less of an ancillary piece.

Panic meter 6/10