Thursday Night Football: Chiefs vs. Ravens open thread

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The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game

As the 2024 NFL season kicks off, fans across the nation turn their eyes toward GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO where a thrilling rematch is set to unfold. Tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup features the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, taking on the Baltimore Ravens — a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game that the Chiefs narrowly won, 17-10. Fans can expect a battle of titans, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 p.m. EDT on NBC.

This space will serve as your open thread for tonight’s game, plus a deep dive into the game within a game — the odds courtesy of FanDuel and my pick for tonight’s outcome.

Check out all the NFL Week 1 odds at FanDuel

Understanding the Odds

Before diving into the team breakdowns, it’s important to understand some of the betting odds surrounding this matchup. The current odds suggest that the Chiefs are the favorites to win by 3 points, marked as Kansas City -3, while the Ravens are given a +3 line.

Spread: This refers to the number of points by which a favored team is expected to win. In this case, the Chiefs must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread.

Line: The moneyline indicates the odds of either team winning outright. Here, the Chiefs are at -152, meaning a $152 bet would yield a $100 profit if they win, while a bet of $100 on the Ravens at +128 yields a $128 profit if they pull off the upset.

Over/Under (O/U): This is the total combined points expected in the game — 46.5 in this case. Betting on the “Over” means you predict that both teams will score more than 46.5 points collectively, while the “Under” means you think they’ll score less than that. The odds for both the Over and Under are identical at -110, which indicates balanced confidence from sportsbooks in both outcomes.

The identical odds for Over and Under suggest that sportsbook experts perceive both totals as equally likely to happen, reflecting further uncertainty about how both offenses will operate in a high-stakes season opener.

The Kansas City Chiefs: Three-Peat On The Brain

The Chiefs are looking to continue their recent dominance, having won back-to-back Super Bowls and setting their sights on a third. Key offseason moves included the signing of standout wide receiver Marquise Brown (who has been ruled out for this game) and the drafting of Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, giving quarterback Patrick Mahomes new weapons to exploit defenses. Kansas City enters the season with the highest odds to win the AFC West at -230, suggesting significant confidence in their revamped roster and head coach Andy Reid’s ability to maximize talent.

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Worthy hopes to give Mahomes a weapon he hasn’t had since Tyreek Hill

Statistically, the Chiefs have a 16.6% chance to win the Super Bowl with odds at +500. There’s heightened expectation for Mahomes to increase his average depth of target from 6.8 yards to around his career average of 8.2 yards, indicating a strategic shift toward an even more explosive offense driven by speed and precision.

The Chiefs will need to efficiently integrate these changes on the field, especially as they attempt to avenge last season’s hard-fought victory against Baltimore.

The Baltimore Ravens: Out for Redemption

On the other side, the Ravens are eagerly anticipating this rematch, aiming to put last season’s playoff loss behind them. Second-year linebacker Trenton Simpson is set to start, having received substantial reps in the preseason. This is particularly crucial given his inexperience, especially as he replaces former starter Patrick Queen, now with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Baltimore’s defense ranked first last season in points allowed, and they hope to apply that pressure against the Chiefs’ high-octane offense.

In addition to Simpson, defensive tackle Travis Jones has been touted as a breakout candidate this season, receiving the most votes from teammates for a standout performance. On the other hand, quarterback Lamar Jackson will inevitably be under close scrutiny, as usual; his ability to navigate the Chiefs’ blitz-heavy scheme will be pivotal. Historically, Jackson has struggled against the Chiefs, holding a 1-3 record with only 750 passing yards and 303 rushing yards against them.

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What’s at Stake

As these two AFC rivals meet, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The season opener not only carries significant implications for playoff positioning, but it also sets the tone for each team’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

Each team faces critical challenges — Kansas City with integrating new talent, and Baltimore with key defensive roles still being solidified. Both teams have the capability to unleash powerful offensive performances, making this matchup one fans shouldn’t miss.

Spence’s Bottom Line

As the season kicks off, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in a familiar position as the team to beat, following their remarkable achievement of winning back-to-back Super Bowls. However, their disappointing performance in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions raises questions about their readiness. Emotions will be running high tonight, especially with the unveiling of their new championship banner. The charged atmosphere could play a significant role, potentially affecting the focus and execution of the Chiefs as they face a hungry opponent.

On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens come into this game with a lingering bitterness from their recent AFC Championship loss to Kansas City. Although Lamar Jackson insists the game isn’t about revenge, you can bet that motivation is simmering beneath the surface. This encounter presents an opportunity for the Ravens to assert themselves not just against the Chiefs, but also to send a strong statement to the entire AFC and NFL. In what promises to be an electrifying showdown between two MVP-caliber quarterbacks, I see the Ravens coming out on top, clinching a 24-20 victory and establishing their presence early in the season.

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