Diving into plenty of historical data provides a basis to predict how the Bills will fare in this year’s battle of take and give
As I note every year, aside from “wins” one of the best indicators of success is often turnover differential. Stealing opportunities from opponents (or letting it happen to you) can be a pretty major swing. So like I also write every year, let’s take a look at historical data for the Buffalo Bills, pair it with some key changes to the team, and take some guesses on how this year’s squad will do.
Buffalo Bills Takeaways
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25562454/2023_Takeaways.jpg)
Maybe next year I’ll start doing a rolling decade or something, but here are the takeaway trends since the Dick Jauron era. The blue line is Buffalo, the red line is the league average, and the thin black line is the league trend line. That color scheme will apply to the next chart as well.
With league numbers trending down, it’s notable that the Bills in the McDermott era keep trending up. I’ve predicted regression to the mean a few years but SPOILER ALERT, I’ve learned my lesson when it comes to that with this team.
Key factors
On the coaching side, Bobby Babich takes the reins as defensive coordinator and may be taking over play-calling duties. While this could be a major deal, we know McDermott pulled aside Leslie Frazier in the past to make sure his defensive coordinator was on the same page with him. In other words, I expect the defense to continue having the McD stamp of approval.
Jahmile Addae was added as the cornerbacks coach, which is a great transition to player changes. Cornerback Kaiir Elam has a renewed buzz, partially in concert with the Addae add. The loss of safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, and cornerback Tre’Davious White is concerning.
On the other hand, that trio accounted for three interceptions and one forced fumble during the 2024 regular season. Cornerback Rasul Douglas had four interceptions, and linebacker Terrel Bernard snagged three. Nickel corner Taron Johnson forced three fumbles, and cornerback Christian Benford logged two. The biggest contributors to turnovers on defense from last season are still here.
Linebacker Matt Milano is also trending up after being lost for the season early on in 2023 and edge rusher Von Miller may also be returning to form. My prediction? See below.
Giveaways
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25562466/2023_Giveaways.jpg)
Now here’s the bad news. While the Bills have done better than Josh Allen’s disastrous rookie season in recent years, they’ve been trending the wrong way.
Note: Because turnovers are zero sum, the red and thin black lines are identical to above. So yeah, this also means that the league average giveaways are trending down, Buffalo is moving backwards. Now to be fair, 2022 and 2023 did see overall increases in the NFL. This still isn’t all that comforting for Bills fans because our team seems to have been a primary driver in that.
Key factors
There are a bunch of possible changes here that could impact things. Let’s start with Joe Brady getting the nod as the full-time offensive coordinator after being interim last season following Ken Dorsey being cast aside. We don’t know what this means for scheme just yet, but the mantra from training camp seems to reflect spreading the ball around. Why is that important?
There is some insinuation that Josh Allen may have been forcing passes to certain targets. If true, two of Allen’s top three targets are no longer with the team. The departure of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis forces Buffalo’s hand to change things up, which may be driving the “feed everyone” refrain.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid rounds out the top three for 2023 targets and of course returns this season. Kincaid was arguably the steadiest presence of the three at times and the hope for Buffalo is a reduction in error rate on passing connections. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is making a name for himself at camp for similar reasons.
The offense seems to have more volatility than the defense. You can add fluctuations on the offensive line as a potentially big deal for instance. In one way they’re just like the defense. You’ll have to wait a moment for my prediction.
Differential
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25562474/2023_Differential.jpg)
New this year is the Turnover Differential chart for the same span. Positive numbers are desirable here. This chart is mostly quick-reference eye candy to show the gap between giveaways and takeaways each season. Buffalo was barely on the right side of things last year, and only managed to break even in 2022.
I didn’t take the time to add it to the chart but if you’re curious how well this data correlates to Buffalo Bills wins, the answer is “kinda.” The best differential was McDermott’s first season with a very careful Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. It was also the McDermott era’s second-worst overall record. The worst differential in 2018 does correspond with the only season Buffalo missed the playoffs under McDermott and by far their worst record.
The two best seasons (2020 and 2023) for overall record had +4 and 0 differentials. The +8 differential resulted in an 11-6 season. Put differently, it seems that the Bills have been able to thrive without elite differential metrics, but I think common sense prevails here. You want to be on the positive side of the ledger whenever possible.
Predictions
Finally. At long last! My predictions for 2024. Like I said above, I’ve learned my lesson on rooting against Sean McDermott’s defenses when it comes to takeaways. They’re nearly always comfortably above average if not elite. I don’t expect that to change this year.
More specifically, I think what the team lost in experience/intelligence on the field, they’ve gained in youth and athleticism. McDermott’s teams always show that they’re told to punch and rip at the ball so any new faces aren’t likely to change that trend. I don’t think I’ve predicted a perfect repeat yet, but that’s my guess. Buffalo’s defense will again have 30 takeaways and remain in elite territory.
On offense I hope I’m not overly optimistic, but most of this will hinge on Josh Allen. That’s not me repeating the turnover-machine talking point, it’s just realistic with most turnovers having quarterback input into the play.
We’ve seen how careful Allen can be with the ball and to me he’s at his best when he’s relaxed and having fun. Training camp seemed to have a more relaxed vibe than last season and, personally, I think there’s some merit to things being a bit forced last year. I’ll put my prediction at 23 giveaways, which as I’m typing it out seems incredibly optimistic. Too late now, I’m locked in.