Analyzing eye-opening 2024 ESPN Fantasy stat projections for Buffalo Bills

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Have a look at the numbers ESPN Fantasy has projected for the Bills in 2024

The NFL is deep in the offseason doldrums, which means there isn’t much to discuss besides projections. In this article, we’ll peek at ESPN Fantasy Football 2024 stat projections to see how ESPN thinks the Buffalo Bills stack up for the 2024 season. Along with that, I’ll chime in with my own over/under projections of ESPN’s numbers.

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Quarterback

Josh Allen

My thoughts:

ESPN is projecting Allen to regress substantially in passing yards and passing touchdowns. With the Bills losing their top receiver in Stefon Diggs, a regression by Allen is a rational thought. However, a dip of 600 passing yards seems a bit much. The 23 passing touchdowns seem extremely low. Both of these numbers would be Allen’s lowest since 2019.

The only way I see Allen failing to eclipse these passing numbers is if he gets injured or if the Bills suddenly turn into a “ground and pound” team, which I don’t see happening. One welcome sight would be a decrease in Allen’s interceptions. Allen’s rushing projections are fair, in my opinion.

Allen’s Over/Under

• Passing yards = Over
• Passing TDs = Over
• INT = Over
• Rushing yards = Over
• Rushing TDs = Under

Running backs

James Cook

My thoughts:

I think ESPN’s projections are a realistic expectation for Cook. He has competent backups in rookie Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. I’d imagine Davis will eat away at some of the touches Cook got last season. Seeing only six total TDs is startling, but it’s the same number he had last year. Cook’s entering year three and coming off of a solid season. I believe he’s good enough to smash these projections and become a fantasy star, but that remains to be seen.

Cook’s Over/Under

• Rushing yards = Over
• Rushing TDs = Push
• Receiving yards = Under
• Receiving TDs = Over — Cook will make up for blown opportunities from last season

Ray Davis

My thoughts:

Ray Davis is an old rookie at age 24 and he has the potential to gain playing time right away as Buffalo’s primary backup RB. I expect Davis to contribute a decent amount on offense, but his role will be limited until he proves he can be trusted. Look for him to have a slow start to the season but be more prominently involved later in the year.

Davis’ Over/Under

• Rushing yards = Over
• Rushing TDs = Over
• Receiving yards = Under
• Receiving TDs = Under

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid

My thoughts:

Kincaid is primed to become Allen’s number-one target with the departure of Stefon Diggs. The second-year TE broke the Bills’ rookie receiving record and the team’s TE season receptions record. Expectations are high for this former first-round draft pick.

Kincaid’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Over
• Receiving yards = Over
• Receiving TDs = Over

Dawson Knox

My thoughts:

Knox had his worst season as a pro in 2023, which was largely due to an injury that caused him to miss significant time. The emergence of Kincaid makes the Bills’ tight end room better, but it hurts Knox and his production. ESPN’s projections reflect Knox’s greatly reduced role in Buffalo’s offense with Kincaid involved.

Knox’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Under
• Receiving yards = Under
• Receiving TDs = Over

Wide Receiver

Keon Coleman

My thoughts:

Throughout the offseason, the pressure was on for Buffalo to secure their new wide receiver for the future, and Coleman was chosen to step into this crucial role. Expecting a rookie to replicate Diggs’ production over the past four seasons is unrealistic, but Coleman is in a favorable situation to succeed.

It’s likely that Diggs’ production will be distributed among multiple players. While the NFL has seen recent success with rookie wide receivers, there’s still a learning curve. If Coleman can prove his worth in the red zone and excel in contested catches, he should have a solid rookie season.

Coleman’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Under
• Receiving yards = Under
• Receiving TDs = Over

Khalil Shakir

My thoughts:

Shakir remains the only WR on Buffalo’s active roster who’s caught a pass from Josh Allen in the regular season. Shakir burst onto the scene last season and outpaced Stefon Diggs’ production in the second half of the year. Shakir is mainly a slot receiver, but I would expect him to get more looks on the outside with Diggs and Davis gone.

I have a feeling the Buffalo natives are expecting a big year from Shakir, but the national media doesn’t seem to be as high. I believe Shakir ends up being the second-leading pass catcher on the Bills in 2024. I can already see Shakir’s name on ESPN Fantasy’s “most added” list in the first few weeks of the season.

Shakir’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Over
• Receiving yards = Over
• Receiving TDs = Over

Curtis Samuel

My thoughts:

Samuel’s best season as a pro came in 2020 with Joe Brady as his offensive coordinator. Funny enough, Joe Brady happens to be the offensive coordinator for the Bills in 2024. If you don’t think that Brady’s success with Samuel in 2020 has anything to do with why Buffalo signed him as a free agent, then you’re lying to yourself. I picture Samuel being used all over the field to try and help the Bills find mismatches and use his big play ability.

Samuel’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Over
• Receiving yards = Over
• Receiving TDs = Push
• Rushing yards = Over
• Rushing TDs = Push

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

My thoughts:

MVS comes over to the Bills from their arch nemesis, the Kansas City Chiefs. I have a hard time believing that he will carve out much of a role with the Bills if he couldn’t do much with the Chiefs’ subpar receiving core last season. ESPN’s projections are an accurate reflection of what I expect from MVS.

Valdes-Scantling’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Push
• Receiving yards = Under
• Receiving TDs = Under

Mack Hollins

My thoughts:

Hollins was one of Buffalo’s first free-agent additions this offseason. Hollins will likely be a key special teams player but I think he will be used more in offense than ESPN is projecting.

Hollins’ Over/Under

• Receptions = Over
• Receiving yards = Over
• Receiving TDs = Push

Chase Claypool

My thoughts:

Claypool gets a second chance to resurrect his career after he fizzled out in Pittsburgh and Miami. If Claypool gets his act together, he has the talent to make this roster, but he’ll have to earn that opportunity. If he makes the roster, the Bills might use him more than we believe.

Claypool’s Over/Under

• Receptions = Over
• Receiving yards = Over
• Receiving TDs = Over

Other WRs

Justin Shorter, K.J. Hamler, and Andy Isabella will all be fighting for a roster spot. ESPN’s projections don’t have them making the team. Some might stick around for a practice squad spot but if they make the team I would expect their roles to be minimal. Hamler has the most intriguing potential, in my opinion.

D/ST

My thoughts:

ESPN is projecting major regression from Buffalo’s defense. Losing long-term starters Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White will sting, but there are also some positives to look at.

All-Pro LB Matt Milano is back from injury, Von Miller is another year removed from his ACL tear, Terrel Bernard emerged as a fantastic MLB, they added younger safeties, and they have Rasul Douglas for a full season. McDermott’s defenses are always an above-average unit in the NFL, and I don’t expect anything different this season.

D/ST Over/Under

• Sacks = Over
• INT = Under
• Fumble recoveries = Under
• TDs = Under
• Points allowed = Under
• Yards allowed = Under

What are your thoughts about ESPN’s statistical projection for the bulk of the Buffalo Bills’ roster? Do your projections look vastly different from theirs or even mine?