Are there clear-cut favorites set to rise to the top, following the 2023 season?
2024 is a season of transition for the Buffalo Bills.
This isn’t news to anyone; general manager Brandon Beane has used the term to describe the upcoming campaign. But with transition comes new leaders. Not just new leadership with a “C” on their chests, but also opportunities for new statistical leaders for the team. When you have mainstays like Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Stefon Diggs, the question of who will lead the team in interceptions or receiving yards gets a little bit easier.
But with the season of transition comes the opportunity for new names at the top of the leaderboards. So which Buffalo Bills will lead the team in each of the relevant raw counting statistics for the 2024 regular season?
Let me offer a guess on the offensive side of the ball — though I’ll leave the actual stats predictions to you in the comments for now.
Passing Yards: Josh Allen
I’m not sure how many words I want to waste on this one. Not one more.
Rushing Yards: James Cook
I do think there’s an opportunity for a decreased workload for Cook relative to 2023 simply because the team drafted Ray Davis, and they also didn’t get to see very much of Damien Harris before losing him to an injury last season. In addition, we didn’t see Harris with offensive coordinator Joe Brady at all, as Harris was done for the season after Week 5 and Brady took over for previous OC Ken Dorsey after Week 10. Davis could fill the role envisioned originally for Harris with a more run-focused OC in Brady relative to his predecessor.
But Brady ran the Carolina Panthers’ offense in 2020 and after losing star Christian McCaffrey following Week 2. He then leaned heavily on mostly Mike Davis rather than an even split in the backfield. I’m not saying Davis couldn’t come in and take more carries (and by extension yards) from Cook than Latavius Murray did, but it feels like a safe bet that Cook still leads the way.
Rushing Touchdowns: Josh Allen
It feels likely that Ray Davis is going to get his opportunities on the goal line, but Allen has led the team in rushing touchdowns every year since 2019 except for 2021, when he had six to Devin Singletary’s seven.
Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid
The pass-catcher position in this discussion, like every other discussion surrounding the Buffalo Bills this offseason, is the most interesting one. There will be designated people in the Kincaid camp alongside those who will make arguments for Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, or the rookie Keon Coleman.
My argument for Kincaid is simple: I think he’ll be the most-targeted player, and I don’t think the yards-per-reception difference between the top wide receiver and him will be enough to bridge the gap.
Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir can both play outside and in the slot. The Bills just came off a season where they ran 203 plays in 12 personnel — a four-fold increase from the previous year (2022), even with Dawson Knox missing five games due to a wrist surgery. The Bills traded away wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason, opening the door for even fewer three-WR sets and limiting one or more of the Coleman/Shakir/Samuel trio in total snap count.
Once Joe Brady took over the offense in 2023, Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving yards — but Kincaid’s slot rate jumped from 51.2% to 65.5% and he led the team in receptions during that span. His average depth of target and average yards per reception crept up during that span as well, and if he can keep that steady with the top three receivers cannibalizing their own snaps and targets, he can emerge on top.
Receptions: Dalton Kincaid
See above
Receiving Touchdowns: Dalton Kincaid
See above.
...and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive.