Kickoffs, coaches’ challenge, and tackling have all undergone a significant twist and could blur the line between wins and losses
The NFL and its Competition Committee made some notable changes to America’s game this spring, all of which have the ability to play a role in how this season plays out. You may recall that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott was named to the NFL Competition Committee earlier this year, a responsibility that he’s undertaken with humble aplomb.
What do those rules changes have in store for the NFL and, most important to our discussion here, the Buffalo Bills? I believe there are three key changes that carry potentially significant implications for the Bills in 2024. What sort of impact, exactly? There should be a few advantages for Buffalo this coming season, especially when considering the team’s hiring of former NFL ref and ESPN rules analyst John Parry as an officiating liaison.
The new rules in place for the 2024 NFL season, in detail:
Let’s dive further in to see how things could play out for the Bills.
New NFL kickoff rules
The most noteworthy change this offseason, kickoffs have become (hopefully) relevant again. Now, kicking and returning units will have to line up their forces 10 yards away, unable to start the play until the ball has been caught. It’s going to look something like this below — shared originally by Ian Rapoport on social media:
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@Rapsheet on X
Personally, I like this change. It’s difficult to recodify a longstanding play in a sport without making everyone upset, even though the NFL has been tinkering with the kickoff since its inception. This new set-up shows that the experimentation in the spring football leagues is worthwhile, and it adds excitement to a part of the game that became far too ceremonial and meaningless. The new rules have the potential to foster game-changing plays again while giving the NFL what it wants: variance.
This has been a long time coming, in my opinion. In 2023, the Green Bay Packers led the league with 31 kick-return attempts — a mark that would place them 26th in 2015. Additionally, the NFL saw a record-low of just 22% of kickoffs returned last season. Only four TDs were scored off kickoffs last year, and one of them was by a fullback. Safety concerns made the league nullify kickoffs and essentially pushed coaches to favor a touchback as it was both a safer and statistically smarter play than risking a return. Now, teams will have to adapt to new trends, scheme more unique strategies and even draft specialists again.
Why does it matter?
Getting ahead of the curve here will provide a competitive advantage to those who take it. But is Buffalo going to be able to reap those benefits? Sean McDermott’s inclusion in the NFL Rules Committee allowed him to take part in the development of this new rule (and all new rules), so one would assume he has an inside track on what makes this new kickoff successful and how to shape the roster around the needs for different kinds of fielding and receiving teams.
Wide receiver Curtis Samuel was mentioned as a candidate for return duties when the rule change was announced, but he hasn’t returned a kick since 2018. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir has the skillset of a returner, but only did so five times last year and had just 31 returns through his entire college career (punt or kickoff). Plus, both of them are set to be regular fixtures on offense — and Isaiah McKenzie has been the only return man during Sean McDermott’s tenure who has also been a consistent player away from special teams.
Running back Ty Johnson led the Bills in attempts last season and is the only known commodity rostered, but the new rules seek to benefit teams that risk more returns. As such, Johnson would be a very safe option whereas Shakir and Samuel would be more of a threat to make a big play or induce a touchback kick.
Roster flexibility can and should be another asset of this change, as it could put backup offensive linemen or other previously unused players into special teams roles allowing the Bills to have more depth at positions that are scarce instead of a sixth receiver or third running back.
The XFL saw nearly half of all drives after kickoffs start past the 30-yard line or below the 20-yard line, providing a much wider range of outcomes than the NFL is used to in recent years. While it’s been recorded that drive starting points aren’t necessarily impactful on scoring, a touchback bringing the ball to the 30-yard line will certainly encourage teams playing Josh Allen to take the risk and try to pin him deep every chance they get.
Teams like the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and others will be the most-frequent victims of kicks inside the “landing zone” — prompting them to field returners with real prowess instead of placeholders who watch the ball go over their head.
Hip-drop tackles banned
In another attempt by the NFL to endeavor the promotion of player safety, the “hip-drop”-style tackle has been evicted, reducing the risk of a star player blowing out their knee. But beyond that, it also adds another subjective decision for refs to make that could impact a game.
There’s no imperial evidence on how often these types of tackles happen or what exactly the injury rate is due to them, but whenever a certain new rule comes in, it tends to be a point of emphasis for officials and seemingly always plays a controversial role in a few games. However, unlike the defensive-pass-interference or roughing-the-passer rule changes, this kind of tackle isn’t something that necessarily has to happen.
Limiting pass rushers’ ability to put body weight on quarterbacks when sacking them, or asking defensive backs to play clean when matched with a receiver is iffy because those interactions occur so often in football, and the subjective nature of those calls can vary wildly while the “hip”drop” is a bit more clearly laid out and isn’t a play that can be quite as blurry.
For Buffalo, with their head coach on the Competition Committee and a previous defensive coordinator, there’s no excuse for not knowing exactly what officials are looking for to call this infraction — and therein lies an advantage. It should be something hammered in players’ heads from minicamp/training camp through the playoffs, and alternative tackling methods in “hip-drop” circumstances will certainly be taught.
Again, there's no real data on these tackles specifically, so determining the impact on defensive performances therein is questionable. Still, we can look at teams’ overall penalty rates and in terms of unnecessary roughness calls, Buffalo has been in the top eight of the most-penalized teams three of the last four seasons. Safety Jordan Poyer received two penalties himself in each of those seasons and the other offenders were a mix of offensive and defensive players so it's hard to draw a connection and say McDermott allows players to be “undisciplined.” Overall, with a veteran staff and players known for tackling well already, this penalty should just provide Buffalo an edge by reducing free yards given away compared to other clubs.
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Coaches’ challenge rule change
Lost in the fold this offseason was the fact that NFL coaches can now challenge a third call if they are successful on at least one of their initial two challenges. This should lessen the impact of missed calls by officials a bit and provide some new strategies for coaches in terms of timeout conservation and challenge risk/reward. Mostly, it will allow viewers to bask in the glory of even more car commercials where they're driving a mom van up the side of a mountain for some reason (I kid).
For the Bills, it could provide an avenue for more efficiency in challenging calls. Sean McDermott is currently the second-worst coach in challenge win-rate (10 wins 23 losses), ranking above only Mike McDaniel but with 20 more attempts. Getting an extra bite at the apple is valuable, as coaches can be more aggressive in the first half instead of being fearful of having only one left the rest of the game if the call is upheld.
Subjectively, McDermott has always seemed very coy on risking a challenge unless it was a vital point in the game (which could explain the dismal record; challenging for the heck of it rather than catching a missed call) so more challenge ammo can allow for a quicker challenge trigger finger.
On the flip side, if his bad track record holds, Buffalo could get outmuscled in a game due to replay review. There’s now a scenario where an opposing coach could go three-for-three (hasn’t happened yet under previous rules requiring both challenges be successful) while the Bills are unsuccessful on two attempts. The impact of reviewed/overturned calls can be huge, and this rule change puts an extra onus upon Buffalo’s replay review staff that now has John Parry to lean on.