The thought experiment continues
A common refrain among Bills Mafia during the 2023 NFL season and continuing now is the sentiment that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By whom? Many don’t seem to care — with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent who creates an “easy button” for a head coach.
That got me thinking. What if we plugged Josh Allen into the underachieving Bills teams of the past? For these editions we do rapid fire of the years that didn’t get a full article.
Wade Phillips Era
1998
Loss to Broncos in AFC Championship Game rather than Wild Card exit to Dolphins
1999
A top-five, borderline elite defense on one side of the ball. A struggling running game and so-so offense that had Eric Moulds, Andre Reed, and Peerless Price at receiver. With 11 wins and five losses, I feel comfortable saying an Allen-led team wins two more games that season (Oakland Raiders and New York Giants). The Bills now tie the Indianapolis Colts at 13-3 and take the division thanks to the better record there, giving them the two seed.
Miami takes down Seattle and Tennessee beats Indy in the Wild Card Round, mirroring actual results from that season. Jacksonville still bounces Miami unceremoniously in the Divisional Round. The biggest change so far is The Music City Mirage is postponed a week and is now known as the “Buffalo Beat Down.” The actual 1999 Bills were close to winning despite roster shenanigans. Allen pulls this out.
The actual 1999 Jaguars fell apart in the AFC Championship and Buffalo is headed to the Super Bowl to take on the St. Louis Rams. The Titans kept the Super Bowl to a one-score game. The actual Buffalo Bills had a much better defense than Tennessee and the now Allen-led offense pushes the AFC to a win.
SUPER BOWL CHAMPS!
2000
The 8-8 Bills from 2000 win three more games with Allen under center. Specifically, games against the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, and Week 5 against the Colts. Thanks to that last one, Buffalo passes Indianapolis to take the six seed (Denver has the Conference tiebreaker for the five seed).
There’s a good chance Buffalo takes down Miami in the Wild Card Round, and a realistic chance they beat the Titans in the Divisional Round. Buffalo loses to Baltimore and their preposterous defense in the AFC Championship. While the improved offense creates some noise in the playoffs, Buffalo’s defense backslid quite a bit that season and they can’t overcome the Ravens.
Gregg Williams Era
2001
The 3-13 actual record from this season is a big reason I didn’t make this one a full article. Buffalo needs seven wins to even reach the playoffs, and I just can’t go that far. For such a lousy record, there were shockingly a lot of close games and Allen alone likely pulls this team out of the cellar and into the familiar drought territory of “mediocre.” I’ll say a 7-9 record with an 8-8 ceiling.
2002
Buffalo easily takes the division this year with Josh Allen on the team. At 8-8, it was Williams’ best season as the head coach. It was also a garbage year for the AFC East. That “meh” record was only one game back from the AFC East Champion New York Jets. The Dolphins and Patriots were also tied at 9-7 with one of the craziest logjams in a division I can recall.
An overtime loss to the Jets in Week 1 is an easy choice for a flip. As are a one-point loss to Kansas City, a 10-0 loss to Green Bay, and a five-point loss to Denver. The offense this season was actually pretty effective (eighth in points per drive) with the defense pulling them down.
Despite that, I really like Allen’s chances at flipping all four of those games, putting Buffalo at 12-4. The AFC as a whole was in a similar logjam with no team being better than 11-5. The Josh Allen-led Buffalo Bills become the one seed with really only a handful of plays going differently.
For the Wild Card, Tennessee beats Cleveland (based on overall playoff results that season), and Pittsburgh kills Indianapolis — which had zero points in their actual Wild Card game that year against the Jets.
In the Divisional Round, Oakland beats Tennessee (just a week earlier than what actually happened). Pittsburgh lost in this round in 2002, but dropped 31 points against the Titans and 36 the week before against Cleveland. Both defenses were better than Buffalo’s. Even with Allen I don’t like this team’s odds in a shootout and Buffalo falls to Pittsburgh. If Buffalo had squeaked by, Oakland found another gear in the AFC Championship and Buffalo would likely lose there as well.
2003
Improve by four games, Denver still takes six seed d/t Conf. rec
Mike Mularkey Era
2004
Loss to New England in AFC Championship
2005
The easiest path to the playoffs this season was to take the AFC East. At 5-11. Buffalo was five games behind the Patriots. If Buffalo flips five games, including one against New England, they’d pull ahead of New England. There are enough close games and lousy offensive performances this season to think Allen has a shot at accomplishing this. That said, I can’t in good faith say this team pulls it off.
Games in which Buffalo scored ten points or less (there were five of these) likely saw some coasting from the opponent. Of course the Bills improve, but I’ll put my prediction as missing the playoffs at 9-7.