The thought experiment continues
A common refrain among Bills Mafia during the 2023 NFL season and continuing now is the sentiment that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By whom? Many don’t seem to care — with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent who creates an “easy button” for a head coach.
That got me thinking. What if we plugged Josh Allen into the underachieving Bills teams of the past? For these editions we do rapid fire of all the years that didn’t get a full article.
Dick Jauron Era
2006
This season is a great case study for how much impact one player can have. The seemingly easiest path to the playoffs in 2006 was to chase Kansas City and the six seed. Just two games ahead of the 7-9 Bills, that doesn’t seem like a heavy lift. Could Josh Allen have improved the team by three games? That would allow us to dream about catching the five-seed New York Jets. Let’s check out which games might have been flippable.
Buffalo lost by two to the New England Patriots to open the season. They split the series with the Jets, losing by one score in the defeat. They lost by a field goal to the Detroit Lions. One point to the Indianapolis Colts. A field goal to the San Diego Chargers. One point to the Tennessee Titans. That’s six games where one moment of hero ball changes the outcome, let alone a full game of Allen over J.P. Losman. If the Bills take four of these, which I think is probable, they’re now 11-5 and the five seed.
It’s not unthinkable one of those games is the New England Game. In fact, that’s my prediction, which puts the Pats at the same record. It also gives Buffalo the better division record and the four seed.
That puts New England traveling to Buffalo where I do think the Patriots come out on top. That’ll be my official prediction, but at various times in the playoffs all of the other AFC teams showed vulnerability, as did the Chicago Bears in the Super Bowl. This season truly could have been a “punch your ticket and see what happens” year, and I would argue Buffalo was one player away.
2007
This year featured one of the worst offenses we’ve ever seen, paired with a defense that with a label of “bad” is still the obvious strength of the team. When this team lost, they often lost big. Of their nine losses, only four seem reasonable to think even Allen changes. They would need three of those to pull even with Tennessee. In that scenario they do win the conference record tiebreaker.
I’m not sure they pull that off. If they did, Tennessee would have been the only team that I think they would have beaten in the playoffs, and that’s the team they’d have booted to get there. My official prediction is 9-7 and miss the playoffs.
2008
Win division and lose in Wild Card to Ravens rather than miss playoffs
2009 Jauron/Fewell
Dick Jauron had just received a second contract, which kept him around for nine games. After a close loss to New England, and a convincing win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Bills were stomped into the ground two weeks in a row, which was somehow less embarrassing than the now infamous 6-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The following week Buffalo needed overtime to take down a Jets squad that put up a massive 13 points. After further shaky results, Jauron was given the bye week to set things right. A 41-17 loss to the Titans was the final straw.
This is a team that I look back on and wonder how we kept up our fandom — which makes it even weirder that I think plugging in peak Josh Allen pays massive dividends. The 2009 Bills had an alright defense and an efficient running game powered by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. The passing game had Lee Evans and Terrel Owens.
I’m confident that the Bills would have won Week 11 (Jacksonville Jaguars), Week 5 (Browns, lol), and Week 1. That last one was the Leodis McKelvin Monday Night Football fumble. Buffalo had the ball at the end with Trent Edwards at quarterback and a field goal able to take the win. I think Allen does it. Also, there were earlier opportunities to bury New England and make the fumble irrelevant. I believe it’s likely the Bills also pull off wins in Weeks 13 and 15 against the Jets and New England round two. I’ll put my official prediction as taking the Jets game of those two for a total of four added wins with Josh Allen.
The 6-10 Bills are now 10-6 and push the Patriots to 9-7. That’s important because it means Buffalo is the AFC East Champ. New England is now tied with four other teams with their record and I’ll level with you I don’t care enough about the Wild Card teams in this year to figure out the tiebreakers. Buffalo would have had a reasonable chance at beating most of the teams and my prediction would be a loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship. This prediction is a little more ceiling-based than some others, and I’ll acknowledge that an earlier exit shouldn’t be ruled out.
Chan Gailey Era
2010
2011
It was a tough year to be a mediocre team in the AFC. At 6-10, Buffalo would need eight games to pass the Patriots and their 13-3 record. I say that because, although Buffalo did split with New England, I don’t think even Allen can pull off the second win for the head-to-head tiebreakers. Next up is Division record. The Pats had 5-1 that year and the Bills had 1-5. Buffalo would need to sweep the Jets and Miami Dolphins to force common games and I didn’t bother to look at common games because I don’t think sweeping the other rivals is happening.
For the Wild Card, the six seed was held by the Cincinnati Bengals at 9-7. The easiest game to flip for the Bills this year was their three-point loss to the Bengals. I think they win that. Losses against the New York Giants and Jets (Week 12) had Buffalo close and with the ball at the end of the game. A game against the Titans was similar.
Buffalo either needs all four of those to break their way, or to win three — but two have to be against Cincinnati and Tennessee. I already noted the Bengals making the playoffs at 9-7. The Titans had a tied overall record and tiebreakers over the Bills. I really don’t like the odds of all that happening. Buffalo gets to 9-7 for my official prediction, but their loss to Tennessee keeps them out of the dance.
2012
This year wasn’t any easier for a mediocre AFC team. Buffalo was once again 6-10 in 2012. The Patriots were theoretically easier to chase at 12-4, but the Bengals had the worst Wild Card record with 10 wins. Despite a solid-looking defensive roster, that side of the ball woefully underperformed. An offense lacking much true star power was often fun but best described as “volatile.”
Getting into the single-game results, a three-point loss to the St. Louis Rams (12-15) stands out as an easy flip candidate. Similarly, a 13-20 loss to the Colts looks probable. Based on how much time they had left in the game and down one score, I also really like Allen’s chances in the second matchup against New England.
I have two games as a “maybe.” Like the Patriots game, a one-point loss to the Titans seems easy enough to flip, but Buffalo scored 34 in that contest in one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s “Fitzmagic” showings. While the Bills did end the game with the ball, on the whole it’s hard to definitively say even Allen plays better. Like that game, a 12-point loss to the Houston Texans seems like a possible flip, but here too Fitz played very well with the game having one of those oddball vibes of drives just stalling for the sake of stalling.
I think it’s realistic that Buffalo pulls out four more wins with Josh Allen under center. With the games identified above (take your pick between Houston and Tennessee) the Bills edge out the Bengals in conference record. In the Wild Card round, Buffalo would have faced an unimposing Texans unit for a likely win.
The Buffalo Bills would have then traveled to take on the top-seeded Denver Broncos. My official prediction is a loss to a Denver squad that dropped 35 points in this round against the Baltimore Ravens. That’s notable because the Ravens won the Super Bowl this year after going Super Saiyan in the playoffs. Denver pushed them closest to their limit. If, by a miracle, the Bills had beaten Denver there’s no way they would have gotten past Baltimore.