Most of Bills Mafia is focused on Gabe Davis, and for good reason. There are plenty of concerns elsewhere, unfortunately.
As is the case every NFL offseason, the Buffalo Bills are set to experience a significant amount of roster turnover at the start of the new league year on Wednesday, March 13. As of writing, One Bills Drive has 51 players under contract for the 2024 NFL season.
Last week, in an effort to purge salary, the Buffalo Bills parted ways with six players: safety center Mitch Morse, safety Jordan Poyer, cornerback Tre’Davious White, defensive back Siran Neal, wide receiver Deonte Harty, and running back Nyheim Hines. Yet, the team is still very likely prepared for a significant amount of losses at starting positions from last season.
Adding to that loss is the fact that the Bills will watch 19 pending unrestricted free agents test their market values beginning in a few days. In recent seasons, general manager Brandon Beane has preferred signing free agents to one-year deals. Some players have been signed to such deals in consecutive seasons, such as defensive end Shaq Lawson and defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, among other.
Broken out further, the Bills are faced with six players on offense and 13 players on defense who will enter unrestricted free agency. While wide receiver Gabe Davis has garnered the lion’s share of attention due to his role as WR2, the situation on defense should raise some eyebrows.
Buffalo Bills UFA players on offense
- WR Gabe Davis
- WR Trent Sherfield
- RB Ty Johnson
- RB Latavius Murray
- RB Damien Harris
- QB Kyle Allen
Buffalo Bills UFA players on defense
- DT DaQuan Jones
- DT Jordan Phillips
- DT Tim Settle Jr.
- DT Linval Joseph
- DT Poona Ford
- DE Leonard Floyd
- DE A.J. Epenesa
- DE Shaq Lawson
- LB Tyrel Dodson
- LB/ST Tyler Matakevich
- CB Dane Jackson
- S Micah Hyde
- S Cam Lewis
Will any of the Buffalo Bills 19 unrestricted free agents return in 2024?
We’ve already discussed the precarious depth at defensive end, and the lack of any to speak of at defensive tackle. But a similar situation exists at safety — where mainstays in Poyer and Hyde are suddenly out of the picture.
The key question here is who, if anyone, is most likely to return to the Bills in 2024 — either on a one-year deal, or a multi-year contract? Had we the prophetic proficiency, we’d know for sure. But at this point, all we can do is assign perceived on-field / locker room value, and then watch other signings within each player’s position group.
We understand that certain positions are undervalued in the modern NFL — notably running back. The huge money just isn’t there for all but the top 1% of players. Even then, it’s a depressed market for game-changers, and this free-agency period is set to feature a roster full of all-world talent at RB.
We’ve done a dive into running back Ty Johnson, analyzing what it might mean for him to return to the team. It’s difficult to gauge a return by Harris, given how sparsely he was used and with him suffering a season-ending neck/head injury fairly early last season. The same can be said for Murray who, while playing often early in 2023, saw a decline as the season played out... and appeared worn down late in the year.
Unless something out of left field happens, expect your Gabe Davis jersey to spend some time hanging in the closet. The often undervalued Davis will find a far better offer outside of Orchard Park, NY. That’s true even with him finishing the season injured and unable to contribute to Buffalo’s offseason run. Trent Sherfield didn’t really establish himself, nor did he separate enough from the rest of the wide receiver room in his one season with the Bills. He brings value most as a blocker. Buffalo needs more receivers whose best value are as pass catchers.
With the signing of quarterback Mitch Trubisky, it’s fair to say Kyle Allen is one and done with the Bills. Though, we said the same about Trubisky before he broke through the Steel Curtain. But in 2024, the clipboard show is Trubisky’s to lose.
As for defense? It’s really not great — no matter how many times we write about it, nor any way in which we dissect it. The idea to consider is that while the defensive line is currently a shell of its depth self, several of those players may be prime candidates to return on one-year deals. We know about Lawson and Phillips, but others could find their way to such an agreement. Players don’t love one-year deals — there’s no guarantee and it’s difficult to plan life outside of work when you’re staring down a months’-long job offer.
Most would say it’s imperative for the Bills to re-sign defensive tackle DaQuan Jones. But has he priced himself out of Buffalo? As a player above 30 years old, Jones is likely hoping to cash in at least once more to benefit his and his family’s future. He’s earned it thanks to his play with the Bills. To that end, it makes sense why Buffalo hosted defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi. Do they value the experience and success Jones has brought to the position, or are they looking more to the future with a player similarly built, but a bit younger?
Elsewhere at defensive tackle, it’s fair to guess that Poona Ford is looking to land elsewhere in 2024. He appeared frustrated at time with his lack of playing opportunities, and when he was on the field it just didn’t always click as predicted. We know how much Jordan Phillips loves the team and Bills Mafia, and he’s his best self with Buffalo. He is older and could be considering retirement — or yet another one-year deal with the Bills. Linval Joseph was brought in to offset the loss of Jones to injury, and he played well. So well, in fact, that he may find an offer elsewhere that provides him more playing time in a starting role — should Buffalo re-sign Jones or add someone else as a starter. As a depth player for a line that utilizes heavy rotation, they can do a lot worse than rostering Tim Settle Jr. again. Will there be mutual interest?
Moving on...
With the Bills clearing significant cap space less than a week ago, perhaps they become more significant players to retain the services of defensive ends Leonard Floyd and/or A.J. Epenesa. Floyd saw one of his most productive seasons in the NFL in his first with the Bills. Epenesa is a former second-round pick of the team, who blossomed during the 2023 season. There are merits to retaining either, and especially both. Can they afford to do any of it, is the matter at hand.
At linebacker, Tyrel Dodson surprised almost everyone watching last season, when he finally put it together as a run-stuffing ‘backer. His effort as an off-the-bench player-turned-starter late in the season helped the team slow the catastrophic injury losses at linebacker. From a player most questioned making the team’s final 53-man roster to potentially landing a lucrative free-agent contract this week, the Bills should want to bring him back. As for Tyler Matakevich, he’s a linebacker in name only, having spent the bulk of his career playing ace special teams. As someone who doesn’t factor much at all into the linebacker equation and who’s on the expensive side as a non-kicking specialist, it may be time for Buffalo to look in another direction.
With the defensive backs, things feel a bit more urgent than they might present on paper. While there is but one cornerback headed to UFA, it’s Dane Jackson — who’s played a key role as a depth/starter for head coach Sean McDermott’s defense since he arrived in Orchard Park. The loss of Tre’ White — who, admittedly, hadn’t been available much to the team in three previous seasons (and due to no fault other than terrible injury luck) — hurts more in ways that have nothing to do with his current ability. Still, retaining Jackson for depth purposes would be a wise move, if the team and he can agree on a deal. It’s likely that Siran Neal finds work elsewhere, though he played an underappreciated role for McDermott as a dual-threat defensive back/special teams gunner. Buffalo may prefer someone more affordable and/or younger to man his position moving forward.
At safety, there’s an urgent need to add starting talent. Losing Hyde and Poyer was always going to hurt — but both in the same season feels like a death knell to the room. Thankfully, Buffalo managed to re-sign safety Taylor Rapp to a new contract. Beyond Rapp, things get interesting. So interesting, in fact, that it’s difficult shutting the door on hope of Hyde’s return — even if his best years are behind him and the wisest choice for his long-term health might be retiring. Essentially, the Bills lack a center fielder to replace Hyde’s role.
These are just my thoughts as we prepare for the start of free agency. What do you believe will happen with any and all of the Buffalo Bills’ 19 unrestricted free agents?