What if... Josh Allen Quarterbacked the 2004 Buffalo Bills?

Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images

What if Mike Mularkey had the chance to work with Josh Allen?

A common refrain among Bills Mafia during the 2023 NFL season and continuing now is the sentiment that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By whom? Many don’t seem to care — with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent who creates an “easy button” for a head coach.

That got me thinking. What if we plugged Josh Allen into the underachieving Bills teams of the past?

---

What if... Josh Allen Quarterbacked the 2004 Buffalo Bills?

Overview

Following the departure of Gregg Williams, the Buffalo Bills hired a young offensive hotshot coordinator from the Pittsburgh Steelers going by the name “Mike Mularkey.” Because that was his name. It likely still is. This infamous Buffalo squad went 9-7, and faced a “win-and-in” contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers to end the season. They lost. To backups. The one-seed Steelers were resting pretty much everyone. A win would have tied the New York Jets’ overall record and thanks to a split division record, forced a common opponent tiebreaker with Pittsburgh a common opponent and sealing the deal.

Coaches and Stats

Mularkey kept many things the same for Buffalo, including retaining defensive coordinator Jerry Gray from Williams’ staff. The team remained a 4-3 scheme on defense with an Erhardt-Perkins scheme on offense. Mularkey brought in Tom Clements for offensive coordinator.

Photo by George Gojkovich/Getty Images

Despite an offensive-minded head coach, Buffalo’s offense only averaged 1.73 points per drive — 13th in the league. They held the same position in drives ending with a score, at 32.1%. Turning over the ball on 14.4% of drives, Buffalo was 18th in the league in that measure. This was mostly an interception problem with the ball lost 17 times that way and 12 due to fumble.

The defense was fifth-best in preventing points, allowing 1.37 points per drive. They allowed scores on 27.3% of drives — 12th in the league. Buffalo was incredible taking the ball away with the third-best rate in the league. The Bills had a take-away on 19.3% of drives. Buffalo generated plenty of pressure. The team was fourth in total sacks with 45, and third best in rate.

Between defense and special teams, Buffalo had a preposterously high 10 touchdowns. Four interception returns, three kickoff returns, two punt returns, and one blocked punt.

Supporting Cast

This was Drew Bledsoe’s final year in Buffalo before moving on to the Dallas Cowboys. I mention the Cowboys as Bledsoe’s first season there showed that his 2004 season in Buffalo was not up to his capabilities. It was overall fine as far as years go but had room for improvement.

At running back, Willis McGahee made his debut and was fine. He was backed up by Travis Henry who was also fine. The biggest name on the offensive line helping the running (and passing) game along was Mike Williams.

For the receiving threats, Buffalo focused on two targets just like I’m about to here. Eric Moulds and Lee Evans. The latter of the two was in his rookie season but shone brightly in his debut season. Despite higher targets for Moulds, Evans had the better touchdown, catch rate, and yards-per-target numbers. To be clear, I’m not suggesting Moulds had a bad year.

Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images

The defense had enviable talent in 2004. Looking at the names on the list, the numbers above are no surprise. On the defensive line Sam Adams (Pro Bowl), Pat Williams (TD on interception), Chris Kelsay, and Aaron Schobel made up a heck of a starting unit.

The linebackers featured both Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher. Spikes had an All-Pro season that year. Terence McGee and Nate Clements made the Pro Bowl from the defensive backfield at corner. Lawyer Milloy did not, but his numbers suggest maybe he should have.

The Josh Allen Effect

I’ll start with my idea of “defensive ripple” first. It’s unlikely Allen has any noticeable effect on the defense throughout the year. That unit was already playing at a very high level, dare I say “elite.” In addition, Buffalo had good time-of-possession numbers. There may have been some effect in individual games, but the aggregate shouldn’t change a whole lot.

Buffalo’s big issues on offense were the lack of star power after the tandem of Moulds and Evans. That’s not to say everyone else dragged the team down, but that duo is a tough act to follow. This extended to the running back room with a pair of backs who were, as noted, “fine.”

Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images

What would Josh Allen be capable of with two legitimate WR1-caliber players and a host of other guys who were fine? I’d love to see it.

Would Mike Mularkey have let Josh Allen be Josh Allen? Mularkey was the offensive coordinator for the Steelers in 2001. In that year, Kordell Stewart had 96 rushing attempts. That was the highest in his career. Allen running would have been a thing in 2004.

Season Results

Will there be any reader surprised that Josh Allen gets the Bills to the playoffs with this 2004 squad? The only question really is seeding and what happens when they reach the dance. As a quick note on overall team talent, after dropping the first four games that year Buffalo only lost three more. That included a six-game win streak toward the end of the season.

In Week 1 I’m tempted to make a joke about Allen being cursed against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Buffalo had plenty of chances to score that were wasted. At the end of the game, Mularkey went time-killing mode and punted from the opponent’s 38 (and looked like he meant to do it from the 33). While I think miscues such as terrible head-coaching decisions keep this one closer than I like, Allen finds another touchdown at some point in the game for the win.

Against the Oakland Raiders in Week 2, Bledsoe sacks killed a ton of drives. The more mobile Allen should find another score in this game as well, adding another win to their total.

Sorry everyone, they still lose to the New England Patriots in Week 4. Allen keeps it close by avoiding sacks that Bledsoe couldn’t, but touchdown Tom still walks away with the win. In Week 10 we have a similar result but at least Buffalo isn’t embarrassed in our thought experiment.

By Week 5 against the Jets the league has seen Allen’s scrambling ability. First-half negative plays in the run game don’t happen as the Jets’ defense can’t key in on Travis Henry as closely. Allen finds another win.

I’d like to say Buffalo pulls out a win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7, but the slew of turnovers and stifling Baltimore defense aren’t something I can safely say don’t occur with Allen on the team. Most QBs have a letdown game each season, and this is Allen’s in our hypothetical 2004.

In their six-game winning streak, the Bills dominated the opposition with the closest game being a 10-point win over the Miami Dolphins. It makes the Week 17 loss to the Steelers’ backups perplexing and all the more horrifying looking back.

Speaking of that Week 17 game. Our Allen-led team enters the game with 12 wins. Still no threat of taking the one seed from the Steelers, Pittsburgh still plays their backups. With the Patriots still leading the division and the fifth seed set in stone, Buffalo also plays backups. With the game mostly being lost on the defensive side of the ball, somehow maybe the Bills’ backups on that side find a way to win. I’ll leave this game as a choose your own adventure. It makes no difference to the prediction below, so for our purposes the Bills end the season 12-4 or 13-3 depending on your choice.

The Bills’ win over the Jets knocks NY out, but otherwise retains the playoff bracket. As a reminder:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1-? and had head-to-head over NE if you’re curious)
2. New England Patriots (14-2)
3. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
4. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
5. Buffalo Bills (12-4)
6. Denver Broncos (10-6)

PREDICTION: Loss to New England in the AFC Championship. Now here’s the full rationale:

The Buffalo Bills travel to San Diego where they handle business. Chad Pennington had a good game in a win over San Diego and playoff Josh Allen does as well. The Bills’ defense recovers from whatever the hell Week 17 was all about and it’s on the Divisional Round.

While the Steelers had a better defense than even Buffalo that season, the Pennington-led Jets managed to force overtime where they lost by a field goal. Nothing against Pennington, but I’ll take the Allen-led Bills in this one in regulation.

In the AFC Championship the short version is that Buffalo falls to the New England Patriots, just as the Steelers did.

Even though this was Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season, he had a ton of success passing and I don’t believe Allen can reasonably do much better here. Big Ben wasn’t famous for rushing and Jerome Bettis had fallen off the cliff, so Allen’s mobility is an advantage. Despite that, New England arguably had the best defense in football this season. Allen perhaps makes this a one-score game, but can’t find two more touchdowns to force OT or a win.

If Buffalo finds a way past New England, I see the Super Bowl against the Eagles as a toss-up. For the second time in this article, I’ll let you choose your own adventure here.

---

Note: This series is intended as nothing more than a thought experiment to open up discussion on the Buffalo Bills. Hope you enjoy it and feel free to disagree and add your own best guesses into the mix in the comments. Go Bills!