Would things have played out any differently for Gregg Williams’ team in this scenario?
A common refrain among Bills Mafia during the 2023 NFL season and continuing now is the sentiment that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By whom? Many don’t seem to care — with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent who creates an “easy button” for a head coach.
That got me thinking. What if we plugged Josh Allen into the underachieving Bills teams of the past?
What if... Josh Allen Quarterbacked the 2003 Buffalo Bills?
Overview
We’re starting things off a bit different for our old friend Gregg Williams, beginning with his third and final year on the team instead of his first. Williams started his tenure with the Bills going 3-13 and then 8-8. After moving in the right direction, Williams and company went backward, finishing 6-10 and third in the AFC East. Buffalo was tied overall with the New York Jets, but miraculously had the better division record at 2-4. After moving backwards in more ways than just record, Williams’ contract wasn’t renewed.
Coaches and Stats
Gregg Williams had maintained a steady hand at defensive coordinator for all three seasons in Jerry Gray. Since exiting Buffalo with Williams, Gray has floated around the NFL, always on the defensive side of the ball. Gray is currently the assistant head coach/defense with the Atlanta Falcons. The Bills were in their third year using a 4-3 scheme with consistency extending from Williams and Gray to Tom Donahoe on the personnel side.
On offense, it was the second year for Kevin Gilbride as the coordinator. Following the 2003 season, Gilbride joined the New York Giants as the quarterbacks coach. Taking over as offensive coordinator in 2007 through 2013, if Gilbride’s name sounds familiar it’s because his offenses helped the Giants defeat the New England Patriots in a couple big games you might recall.
Buffalo’s offense was among the league’s elite... at being terrible. With 1.17 points per drive, Buffalo was 29th worst in the league. They had the second-worst rate of drives ending in a score with 21.9%. This was in large part thanks to a turnover problem worse than any to this point in the Josh Allen era. A full 17.6% of drives ended in a turnover, the third-worst rate.
Interceptions were mostly average, with Buffalo having a major fumbling issue. There were 17 of each type of turnover, or 34 total. That’s just over two per game in a 16-game season.
The defense, on the other hand, allowed the seventh fewest points per drive — with 1.41 allowed. Against Buffalo, 26.9% of drives ended with a score. That placed the Bills as the eighth-best team. That’s somewhat astonishing considering they were dead last in the league at creating turnovers, with 9.3% of drives resulting in a Bills takeaway.
With 38 sacks on the season, Buffalo was thoroughly average in this measure. That makes the points per drive metric seem even more incredible. Helping to explain that all is that Buffalo allowed 4.3 yards per play — second-best in the league. This side of the ball seemed to lack sizzle plays, but just simply delivered much of the time.
Supporting Cast
This was the second year of Drew Bledsoe in Buffalo, with year one leading to a trip to the Pro Bowl on the back of a strong season. Bledsoe played the entire year, but to say things really weren’t clicking would be an understatement. Bledsoe wasn’t known for running and none of the Gregg Williams-led Bills seasons seemed to feature it anyway. Managing 29 yards on 24 attempts, it’s easy to imagine some of the difference Josh Allen would have made. Similarly, Bledsoe was sacked 49 times and the Bills allowed 51 total. That was seven more than the second-worst team... which is horrific.
Travis Henry was also coming off of a Pro Bowl year at running back and overall was fine. Henry was a true workhorse back tallying 85% of the carries by a running back. Arguably this would be considered one of Henry’s stronger years, but it didn’t represent a star power kind of season.
For receiving targets, Eric Moulds was by far the biggest name on the roster. Rounding things out were Josh Reed and Bobby Shaw at receiver and Mark Campbell at tight end. None of the players on the list surrounding Moulds were remotely bad, but none were likely drawing defenses away from Moulds consistently either. Moulds ended the year with a single touchdown. While health was a contributing factor with three games missed, Moulds’ season was a disappointment.
We don’t need to discuss any more defensive statistics, but I’ll reiterate that this group had a good year. What I’ll also do is just provide you with a list of names that will make many Bills fans recall that, if anything, even with a solid year there’s an excellent argument they underperformed.
- Sam Adams
- Pat Williams
- Aaron Schobel
- London Fletcher
- Takeo Spikes
- Antoine Winfield
- Lawyer Milloy
- Nate Clements
- Terrence McGee (rookie) was a depth player but fans of this era know that this is enviable depth
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Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images
The Josh Allen Effect
Incredible quarterbacks elevate teams but there has to be a limit, right? I would love to see what Eric Moulds could have done with Josh Allen throwing him the ball. That said, even Allen has struggled when teams were capable of focusing on his main target.
Allen’s mobility likely helps avoid some sacks, but maybe not as much as we might hope. With receivers that may have struggled and a running game that could only take so much pressure off the passing game, defenses could have keyed in on Allen. Similarly, while there’s zero question Allen would have fared better scrambling than Drew Bledsoe, it’s perhaps a bit naive to think Allen could have routinely taken games over with his legs either.
Gregg Williams is a bit tough to get a read on for tendencies. Rob Johnson was allowed to run a fair amount in Williams’ first season with Buffalo and aside from starting more statuesque quarterbacks, there’s no reason to think his preference was to avoid using a mobile quarterback’s legs. None of his other coaching stops give a good indication of his preferences. My gut says Williams doesn’t embrace it, but also doesn’t actively work against it.
Kevin Gilbride brings a curious set of data with him. Prior to his tenure in Buffalo, he was offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers with Kordell Stewart at quarterback for most of his two years in Pittsburgh. Stewart’s rushing attempts seemed fairly consistent with other coordinators. It’s fair to say Gilbride had familiarity with a dual-threat quarterback and likely would have been a voice in the room advancing the idea.
As opposed to earlier entries into this series, I don’t know if the Allen ripple helps the defense much. This team was already playing at a high level even in the absence of the sexy stats. Buffalo had average time of possession despite failing abysmally to score points. Buffalo struggled mightily to find the end zone but somehow their struggles were still fairly methodical in achieving poor results.
I don’t think that this team would have had many more large leads either, forcing teams to play one-dimensionally. Ultimately I think the defensive roads would remain mostly static.
To help explain the above a bit, while Buffalo had six games where they scored more than the league average for that season (20.8), they also had seven games with ten points or less. There were spurts of solid play for sure, but how far could Allen have elevated the 2003 team?
Season Results
Buffalo’s actual 2003 ended with a 6-10 record in an AFC year that was a bit boom or bust. Eight teams joined Buffalo with six or less wins, with seven teams having ten or more wins. One of those teams, the Miami Dolphins missed out on the playoffs despite their 10-6 record.
To achieve the postseason, the Bills needed drastically different results. There will be no talk of chasing the division crown in 2003 as the 14-2 Patriots were eight games ahead of Buffalo. Shockingly, you might remember that the Bills provided one of those losses in a 31-0 drubbing that might be the definition of “false hope” Week 1 results.
Buffalo’s only shot was to overtake the six-seed Denver Broncos. Denver finished the season at 10-6 and edged out the Miami Dolphins thanks to a superior conference record. The Broncos lost three AFC games to the Dolphins’ five.
Buffalo and Denver did not play head-to-head in 2003. The Bills would have either needed a better overall record or won some other tiebreaker. With a massive eight losses in the conference, Buffalo could not have tied Denver in conference record without achieving a better overall record. The short version is this: The Buffalo Bills would have needed five more wins to make the postseason in 2003. That’s nearly double their actual win total.
There are quite a few games that I think stay losses. Here’s a nice list for ya:
- Week 6 at New York Jets, lost by 27
- Week 8 at Kansas City, lost by 33
- Week 16 vs. Miami Dolphins, lost by 17
- Week 17 at New England Patriots, lost by 31 (and shutout to mirror the Week 1 results)
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Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
That means Buffalo has six non-blowout losses to find five more wins. A tough climb but there’s a shot to do it. A three-week stretch saw losses by 4, 2, and 3 points respectively to the Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts. A loss to the Tennessee Titans by two points later in the year stands out as well. Ten-point losses in back-to-back weeks vs. the Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles are tougher challenges, but don’t seem insurmountable either.
I mean heck, Allen owns the Dolphins and maybe that Week 16 game ain’t insurmountable either. Starting that game with even a “meh” effort on offense could have changed the complexion of the game. So yeah, it’s possible that Buffalo finds five more wins in 2003 with Josh Allen. What do I think happens?
PREDICTION: The Buffalo Bills still fail to make the postseason. I think they reach 10-6 but Denver gets in as the six seed courtesy of the better conference record. Is it enough to save Gregg Williams’ job? My gut says that’s a toss-up.
Just for fun, let’s go against my own prediction and assume Buffalo finds that fifth extra win to move past Denver. What happens next? Buffalo travels to take on Indianapolis in the Wild Card Round. Buffalo played Indy close in the regular season thanks to a few key stops and turnovers in Week 12.
In the Wild Card Round, Peyton Manning tore apart the Broncos. Denver’s defense that season wasn’t that far behind Buffalo’s, meaning Manning wasn’t playing a pushover. It was a bloodbath. Manning posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating with 377 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-10 destruction of Denver.
Want me to keep piling on? The Colts had nine possessions. They scored on their first seven. The eighth ended in a fumble and the final drive ended on downs. Making that more absurd, the Colts had pulled Manning and Brock Huard was the culprit behind the incomplete passes that led to that stalled final drive.
Even with Josh Allen, the 2003 Bills team would have been sent packing by the Colts.
Note: This series is intended as nothing more than a thought experiment to open up discussion on the Buffalo Bills. Hope you enjoy it and feel free to disagree and add your own best guesses into the mix in the comments. Go Bills!