What level are the Bills looking to maintain or improve on in the coming year?
Free agency is coming. While that often means excitement over new additions, it can also mean the loss of significant contributors. With the Buffalo Bills in a less-than-ideal cap situation, we’re approaching our annual free-agent review a bit differently this year. While there’s always been an undertone of “this player may need to be replaced,” we’re going to be leaning way harder than simply into undertone on that aspect. For this upcoming season, let’s examine the following question:
How high was the bar set by...
Wide receiver Gabe Davis
Stats and whatnot
Before we even get going, I want to be candid. My mind has been made up on Davis for quite some time, and 2023 didn’t change things. I don’t think I’m going to change anyone’s opinion with a handful of GIFs either. So down below what you’ll find is a few highlights as what will likely be a farewell for Davis with my expectation that he’ll be priced out of a return to Buffalo. I’ll lay out my case for why I like Davis more than many, but you’re free to skip to the highlights if you wish. Or, if you prefer, the comments to insinuate that my opinion stinks.
Let’s start off with the elephant in the room. Davis’ catch rate is terrible. Remember that I love the guy, but I do mean terrible. At 55.6%, he’s behind 176 other receivers. Want some context on that figure? If we evenly distribute those players across the league, that would be 5.5 players per team who have a better rate than Davis.
Let’s factor out running backs and tight ends, who tend to catch “easier” passes and have inflated catch rates. Davis is number 90 out of 109 qualifiers. That’s not great, so why have I defended the man this whole time?
I call catch rate a chemistry stat. Quarterback accuracy, play call, depth of target, throwaways and more all impact the metric. It can tell you something is wrong, but it doesn’t inherently mean it’s the receiver’s fault.
To dig into this a bit, let’s lean on the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. We call deep passes “low percentage” plays because of their difficulty. Gabe Davis has an average targeted air yards (TAY) measurement of 15.1 yards. For those unfamiliar, here’s the definition from Next Gen Stats:
“The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.”
There are three players ahead of Davis for 2023. That’s it. One of them, D.J. Chark, is barely ahead if at all, as he’s also listed as 15.1 TAY. There are five players with 15 TAY or higher. Gabe Davis has the highest catch rate in this group. For full disclosure, there are five players between 14-15 TAY with a higher catch rate than Davis, and three of these break the 60% barrier. It’s not that you can’t have a high TAY and catch rate, but Davis’ catch rate is consistent with his TAY grouping.
I’ve also heard knocks on Davis’ route-running ability. To be clear, I’m not insinuating he’s on par with Stefon Diggs. Or Cole Beasley. Or Stevie Johnson. Lee Evans. Eric Moulds. Andre Reed. I could go on. Davis has been considered a WR2 in Buffalo, and to me his route tree is plenty diverse for a WR2.
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This is a great sample of routes. It’s from one game and only reflects plays in which he was targeted — or 12 snaps. He was on the field for 68 snaps total, with 40 plays credited as passing ones this game. It seems Buffalo’s coaches trust him with a route tree that has a few different branches on it.
The Film
Play 1 - Touchdown
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Remember these are mostly highlights as I assume your mind is already made up regarding Davis. I will add that his average separation per Next Gen Stats was 2.8 yards, which means this is above his typical. At 2.8 yards of average separation Davis is fairly average. However, it’s interesting that receivers with a high TAY tend to have similar separation numbers, and actually Davis fares fairly well. Of 21 receivers with 13 TAY or higher, only four of them had a higher average separation — and it was barely the case. Three had 2.9 and one had 3.0 average yards of separation per target.
Play 2 - Nine yards
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I’m using highlights from a single game where Davis had 100% catch rate and I can show you all three of his targets. Despite the low targets and unusually high catch rate, Davis shows off a decent array of skills.
Play 3 - 34 yards
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And here’s a bomb that inflates that TAY number quite a bit. This one was underthrown but Davis adjusts well.
The Final Straw
I’ve been saying this awhile now. If you adjust for a lot of the realities that surround Gabe Davis, his catch rate becomes shockingly normal. Are there some passes I think he wants back (and I know I’d like to see turn out differently)? Oh absolutely, yes. Find me a receiver without some of those though and you know I’m on board. Don’t get me wrong either, I’m not trying to sway anyone into thinking I want him supplanting Diggs or anything.
Ultimately I think Davis performed well for a WR2 in a system that loved putting him in low-percentage situations. A main reason I like Davis though is that I feel his skill set could adapt to a system that makes it easier for him to up that catch rate a bit too.
You’re not here for just my farewell highlights for Davis though are you? You want to know the bar he set and the odds Buffalo can match it in 2024, right? Davis is young enough where of course I think he can match his own bar if they find a way to keep him. For the record, I’d like that outcome. That said, while I think it’s not a given they find a player who definitively matches Davis’ ability as a replacement, I also don’t think it’s a far shot to envision that they could.
Davis is a really good player who’s easy to root for. That doesn’t mean irreplaceable., especially if Joe Brady can deviate a bit stylistically and broaden the player search a bit. If Davis is back in Buffalo, I’m happy to see it. If he’s not, I’m happy to approach the season with an open mind.