Analysis: 3 ways the Bills’ offense can attack Denver’s defense

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DENVER BRONCOS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, NFL
Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

There are opportunities for the Bills to exploit the Broncos’ dominant defense

The Buffalo Bills are in a familiar spot as the number two seed in the AFC playoffs. This is the fourth time in five years they have earned this seed. This year they will face off against the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. The Broncos squeaked in the playoffs as the AFC’s number seven seed after a Week 18 victory versus the Kansas City Chiefs backups.

Make no joke about it though, this Broncos team isn’t one to take lightly. Their offense has improved throughout the season with promising rookie QB Bo Nix leading a group that has talented WRs and a solid offensive line. However, the real danger of this team lies in its dominant defense, one that has the potential to give the Bills offense some trouble. Let’s review what makes Denver’s defense so good and then identify three areas Buffalo can exploit it.

Denver’s dominant defense

Let’s do a simple exercise to show just how good the Broncos have been on defense this season. Below are all the statistical categories where the Broncos' defense is ranked top 5 in the NFL.

  • Points per game allowed (18.3)
  • Yards per play allowed (4.9)
  • Touchdowns allowed (31)
  • EPA per play allowed (-0.17) - Best in the NFL
  • Pass yards per play allowed (5.6)
  • EPA per pass play allowed (-0.18) - Best in the NFL
  • Rushing yards per game allowed (96.4)
  • Rushing yards per play allowed (3.9)
  • EPA per rush allowed (-0.15)
  • QB pressures (265) - Best in the NFL
  • Pressure Rate (37.4%)
  • Total Sacks (63) - Best in the NFL
  • Sack % (8.9%) - Best in the NFL
  • Team average pass rush get off (.79 seconds)
  • Team run stuff rate (21.9%)
  • Rushing yards after contact allowed (2.64)
  • Runs of 10+ yards allowed (42)

Simply put, I could leave this section as is and get my point across, but let's look further into why they are so good.

CB Patrick Surtain is a superstar

It all starts with superstar corner Patrick Surtain, the best in the game today and a favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Check out this tidbit from Next Gen Stats showing just how good he is: Patrick Surtain II was targeted on just 10.9% of his coverage snaps this season, the lowest rate among 83 cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps. Surtain allowed 306 yards as the nearest defender across 516 coverage snaps, translating to 0.6 yards per coverage snap, second-fewest among the same group of cornerbacks (Derwin James, 0.5). He did not allow 50 or more receiving yards in any single game this season. Surtain’s presence allows the Broncos' defense to effectively shut down one side of the field on every passing down, enabling them to focus other resources elsewhere.

Zach Allen is an irresistible force on the defensive line

The Broncos also have a force to be reckoned with in the middle of their defensive line. DT Zach Allen is having a career year and is a key part of their success rushing the passer. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen led all defensive tackles with 67 pressures this season, which tied for the ninth-most among all pass rushers in the NFL. Allen was particularly successful against double-teams, generating 14 of his 67 pressures in such matchups, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. Allen posted career-highs in pressures, double-team pressures, quick pressures (22), defensive stops (53), run stuffs (20), and sacks (8.5) this season.

Pass rush drives the Denver defense

Another reason for their success is their ability to tie in good coverage with Patrick Surtain and marry it to an outstanding pass rush. According to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos added +236.6% in win probability across their league-leading 63 sacks this season, the most in the NFL. They managed to convert 23.8% of their total pressures into sacks, resulting in the second-highest pressure-to-sack conversion rate.

The chart below demonstrates just how difficult it is to even convert a first down against the Broncos.

Three areas for the Buffalo Bills offense to attack

Now that we know the Bills are facing an impressive defense, I will review three areas where I think the Bills can attack the Broncos’ defense.

Execute when the Broncos blitz

It might be counter-intuitive to “take advantage” of the Broncos when they blitz given that they sent a blitz on 37.3% of opponent dropbacks in the 2024 season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. They allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (eighth-fewest) when blitzing and recorded 23 sacks (third-most). However, according to Next Gen Stats, they also surrendered 15 of their 22 touchdown passes and recorded only 4 of their 15 interceptions when blitzing. Also, they only generated pressure on 38.3% of their blitzes, the ninth-lowest rate in the league and only +1.3% higher than their league-leading 36.9% pressure rate with four or fewer pass rushers.

Now consider the success that Josh Allen had when facing the blitz this season, throwing for 16 touchdown passes, tied for the second-most in the NFL, and only one interception. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen averaged 8.5 yards per attempt against five or more pass rushers (eighth-most) and was pressured on just 34.4% of the blitzes he faced, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. Josh Allen was the only qualified quarterback to generate positive EPA (+2.2) under pressure from Weeks 6-17 when the Bills won 10 of 11 games.

Given the Broncos' propensity to blitz and Allen’s success in making plays versus the blitz, it is imperative that the Bills take advantage of gaining yards through the air when given the opportunities in these situations.

Run the ball to the weak side with a lead blocker

The Broncos' defense allowed 3.9 yards per carry and a 35.0% success rate when defending designed runs directed to the weak side this season, both of which ranked sixth-lowest in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).

Luckily for the Bills, they have just the type of running back to take advantage of this weakness. According to Next Gen Stats, James Cook ran to the weak side of the formation on 54.6% of his carries this season, the highest rate in the NFL. He averaged 1.7 yards before contact per carry on runs directed to the weak side compared to just 1.0 yards before contact per carry on runs directed to the strong side of the formation. His eight touchdowns on carries directed to the weak side were the fourth-most in the league.

Furthermore, Erik Turner from Cover 1 identified “lead” run plays (running plays with a lead blocker) were particularly successful versus Denver’s defense.

Target RBs in the passing game

Denver’s defense ranks 31st in pass DVOA vs running backs. They have allowed the 12th most passing yards per play to an RB (6.3) and allow a +.03 EPA/pass to the RB position. They have given up 84 receptions on 100 targets for 641 yards and six TDs to running backs in the passing game. Given the Broncos' high rate of playing man-to-man coverage (see chart below) this is an area ripe for the picking for Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady to scheme open his RBs.

In 2024, Buffalo’s RBs have accumulated 731 receiving yards on 67 receptions with eight TDs. Cue a big day receiving for Buffalo’s RBs in this Wild Card Round matchup. Don’t be surprised if you see Cook/Johnson/Davis running swing routes and wheel routes for big plays on Sunday.

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