We can officially start a countdown to seeing Buffalo get that “z” next to their name in the NFL standings.
Not everything went the Buffalo Bills’ way in Week 9, but enough did that they’re sitting in a very favorable position — the two seed — as we start the second half of the 2024 NFL season. Losses by both the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, plus a bye for the Pittsburgh Steelers were stacked on top of Buffalo’s win — via a 61-yard field goal from Tyler Bass — last week. Now, the Bills control all but one race for the top seeds in the AFC.
Now Buffalo is on a (very short) countdown to claiming their fifth-straight AFC crown and a couple of wins (and one team helping) away from being able to sit on top of the entire conference. While it’s a tall order, it’s possible and not unthinkable.
Here’s a look at the current AFC standings as we enter Week 10.
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills (7-2)
- New York Jets (3-6)
- Miami Dolphins (2-6)
- New England Patriots (2-7)
Complete AFC Playoff Picture
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
- Buffalo Bills (7-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
- Houston Texans (6-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
- Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
- Denver Broncos (5-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (4-5, 3-3 in AFC)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-5, 2-3 in AFC)
- New York Jets (3-6)
- Tennessee Titans (2-6, win over MIA)
- Miami Dolphins (2-6, loss to MIA)
- Cleveland Browns (2-7, 2-3 in AFC)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7, 2-4 in AFC)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 2-5 in AFC, .444 SOV)
- New England Patriots (2-7, 2-5 in AFC, .389 SOV)
Just a quick reminder before we dive into this week’s games: the Bills do not have any positive tie-breaker scenarios should they end up in a tie with either Houston or Baltimore at the end of the season. Head-to-head matchups are number one on the list of ways that the NFL breaks ties in the standings (Need a refresher? Go back two weeks and read up here). That means, that we need the Texans and Ravens to lose as often as possible.
In regard to other playoff contenders, the Bills do not face off against the Steelers, Chargers, or Broncos before the end of the regular season. While it’s unlikely that Denver or Los Angeles usurp the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West and just as unlikely that the Bills lose their stronghold on top of the AFC East, the possibility is still mathematically there.
That means that, not only are we rooting for them to lose each week, we have to pay attention to common opponents and Strength of Victory (SOV) scores — at least until there is enough distance between this trio of AFC teams and the Bills.
So, now that we know what our priorities are, let’s look at what games are important to the future fate of the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo Bills (7-2) over Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
This one is obvious — a Bills win keeps them as the two seed in the AFC regardless of what else happens during Week 10. But there’s more to this game than just that. The Colts are a common opponent for the Bills, Steelers, and Broncos. Indianapolis already beat Pittsburgh, so a Buffalo win gives them that tie breaker (and we can talk a little less about SOV next week). The Broncos and the Colts face off in Week 15, but a win on Sunday for the Bills would mean that they couldn’t lose that piece of the tiebreaker (in case the unlikely happens) no matter what happens in December.
AFC East
Chicago Bears (4-4) over New England Patriots (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
It’s always great when we can root against a divisional opponent. While there is little chance that New England is going to make a playoff run, none of the AFC playoff contenders play the Bears this season. That means we can root against the Patriots for old-times sake — and for the fact that a loss is one step closer to eliminating them from the playoffs. Of course, a New England win would help the Bills’ SOS score — but that’s so far down the list of tiebreakers that going ahead and getting division rivals out of the picture is okay here.
Arizona Cardinals (5-4) over New York Jets (3-6)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)
Buffalo has a magic number, and right now that number is 5. Any combination of five wins for the Bills or five losses for the Jets, and the AFC East race is over. If that’s not enough reason to root against the team from New Jersey this weekend, it’s also good to know that along with Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Denver both beat the Jets so a New York victory won’t help anyone’s SOV score. However, the Cardinals don’t play those other two teams so an Arizona win does help the Bills’ SOV.
Los Angeles Rams (4-4) over Miami Dolphins (2-6)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST (ESPN)
With Miami’s loss in Buffalo last week, there’s not much to worry about in terms of the Dolphins taking over the AFC East. It could happen, but it’s not going too. However, while the magic number for the Bills is five, if Miami got on a hot streak while Buffalo slipped, they may need to begin looking at those numbers. So, keeping the Dolphins so far back that they can’t even be seen in the rearview mirror is a good idea. Plus, the Bills play the Rams in December. We only deal with what we know to be a fact here, so we can’t add to SOV this week, but we can add to SOS (Strength of Schedule).
Remaining AFC Games
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) over Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST (PRIME Video)
As we know, the Bills can do nothing to get the Ravens out of their way for playoff seeding — except hope other teams do it for them. While the Ravens slipped and are no longer on top of the AFC North, Buffalo needs them to stay in the wild card numbers in order to have favorable seeding position — or at least have more losses. The Bengals haven’t had the season they were hoping for, but division rivals are always more troublesome than their records make it seem. A Cincinnati win this week would give the Bills some breathing room at the top of the AFC Conference chart.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) over Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
This is all about Strength of Victory. Buffalo still has only one win against a team with a winning record (Arizona), which isn’t going to help them much if they end up in a tie with Pittsburgh. Adding another tally in the win column for any teams that they have beaten this season will always help them.
Denver Broncos (5-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
This one should be obvious. While it’s possible for the Broncos and the Bills to end the season in a tie, that would mean there would have to be some major falling by both Kansas City and Buffalo. But, moving up for the Bills is also in the realm of possibilities — and while a lot would have to go right for that to happen, it’s more probable than Denver moving up. A Kansas City loss this week would mean that Buffalo controls its own destiny. If the Chiefs head to Buffalo with a loss and leave Highmark Stadium with another, the Bills could take the one seed.
Washington Commanders (7-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
This one is about creating distance. Right now, the Steelers are ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. Keeping it that way is ideal. At the same time, they have only lost to one AFC team compared to the Bills’ two conference losses. That means — for now — if the teams have identical records, Pittsburgh gets the step up.
Tennessee Titans (2-6) over Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST (FOX)
No one is ever looking for a reason to root against the Titans more than I am, but this week a Tennessee win benefits Buffalo — so we’ll have to box up those feelings about past wrongs and put them away. If the Titans win, it improves Buffalo’s SOV score and lowers Denver’s. It also puts more distance in between the Bills and the Chargers in the event of the unlikely yet-mathematically-possible scenario where they find themselves tied at the end of the season.
Detroit Lions (7-1) over Houston Texans (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)
Keeping the Texans behind the Bills is going to be the theme every week (just like the Ravens). Getting a two-game cushion by way of a Buffalo win and a Houston loss is ideal as the Bills have to play the Chiefs next week and then have a week off following that. In addition to building a lead over the now four-seeded Texans, Buffalo can add to their SOS score (that will hopefully convert to SOV after Week 15 — but again only dealing with what we know for sure right now) with a Detroit win.
NFC games that impact the Bills
Carolina Panthers (2-7) over New York Giants (2-7)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST (NFL Network)
The Steelers beat the Giants in Week 9, and while New York likely won’t put together a winning record this season, more losses for them means an even lower SOV score for Pittsburgh.
New Orleans Saints (2-7) over Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Here it is again — SOV. The Steelers beat the Falcons in Week 1. The reality is that Pittsburgh has more wins against teams (3) with winning records than Buffalo (1). So, until that changes, we need teams that Pittsburgh has or will play to keep losing.
San Francisco 49ers (4-4) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
This is one of those games that can improve Buffalo’s tie-breaking scores. The 49ers are at .500 going into Week 10. They come to Buffalo in Week 13. It would be nice if San Francisco had a winning record when they visit Western New York in late November. Win or lose, it would improve the Bills’ Strength of Schedule score (and as we are always rooting for a Buffalo win, hopefully their SOV as well).
Dallas Cowboys (3-5) over Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
Sunday, 4:25 pm EST (CBS)
The Steelers lost to the Cowboys earlier this season and they play the Eagles in Week 15. A Dallas win doesn’t help or hurt anything. A Philadelphia win makes the Steelers’ SOS — and potential SOV — stronger. This is definitely a fringe game, but the potential to be a factor is there, so now you know.
NFL Teams on Bye
- Cleveland Browns (2-7)
- Green Bay Packers (6-3)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
- Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
If the Bills win on Sunday, nothing happens — except that Bills Mafia gets bragging rights, a whole bunch of fun social media posts and reactions to sort through for the next three days, and reducing that magic number to being officially crowned AFC East champions for the fifth straight year. But if they lose — and other teams win, this list will look a lot different Monday night.
For now, let’s go with how the AFC Playoff Picture will look if everything goes Buffalo’s way in Week 10.
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
- Buffalo Bills (8-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
- Houston Texans (6-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
- Denver Broncos (6-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (4-6)
- Tennessee Titans (3-6)
- New York Jets (3-7, 3-4 in AFC)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7, 2-4 in AFC)
- Miami Dolphins (2-7, 2-4 in AFC))
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 2-5 in AFC, win over Browns)
- Cleveland Browns (2-7, 2-3 in AFC, loss to Raiders)
- New England Patriots (2-8)
So, now we know who to root for, who to root against, and what games to keep tabs on during Week 10.
Go Bills!