How will Keon Coleman fit into Bills’ offense in 2024?
As the Buffalo Bills gear up for another highly anticipated NFL season, all eyes are on rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman. The Bills traded back not once, but twice, and ultimately out of the first round of the 2024 NFL draft en route to drafting their top selection of wide receiver Keon Coleman out of Florida State.
Drafted with high expectations, Coleman brings a unique blend of size and play-making ability that could add a dynamic edge to the Bills’ already potent offense. With fans speculating whether he could be the heir apparent to Stefon Diggs, it’s crucial to set realistic expectations for Coleman’s inaugural season.
Below, we’ll delve into the potential roles and impact Coleman might have, evaluating his strengths and challenges, and providing ceiling, floor, and realistic predictions for his rookie campaign.
Replacing Stefon Diggs
Head coach Sean McDermott said it himself that you don’t replace Stefon Diggs. Stefon Diggs left and Keon Coleman came in, yet this does not mean that Coleman will replace Diggs’ production, it just doesn’t work like that. Coleman and Diggs are not the same type of players, so we shouldn’t expect Diggs-like numbers from Coleman right away.
Diggs isn’t the only one who left the Bills’ WR room, as fellow starter Gabe Davis left in free agency. Buffalo’s offense as a whole will be replacing Diggs and Davis by having their targets and production spread out amongst the entirety of the offense. Eighty-six percent of the Bills’ WR target share and 317 total targets from last season are up for grabs in 2024. That’s a giant number and Keon Coleman will have every opportunity to get his share of it. But abandon the thought he’s going to emulate Diggs.
Scheme Fit
Coleman slots in as a prototypical “X” receiver with his large frame and ability to win on the outside. The Bills have made it a point to get bigger by bringing in Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Dalton Kincaid in the past two years. Coleman’s ability to get on the field will largely depend on his performance this preseason, but let’s review some of the skills that might help him integrate nto Buffalo’s offense.
- Size — his big frame stands out amongst his peers
- Run blocking on the outside is something Buffalo values and something Coleman can do well
- Ability to separate at the catch point; knock on Coleman is he “can’t separate,” however, his knack for using his long arms, jumping ability, and how he plucks the ball of out the air gives Josh Allen a WR that is open even when he’s covered
- Asset in the red zone; when the field gets small, Coleman gets big.
Competition for targets
As I noted above, 86% of the WR targets and 317 total targets from 2023 are ripe for the picking in 2024. Buffalo’s offense will look a lot different this year, but these targets need to go somewhere. Here are the others that will affect Coleman’s target share:
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Kincaid set records as a rookie, breaking the Bills’ rookie reception record and most receptions in a season by a tight end. Kincaid is primed to explode like a rocket this season. The second-year pro has a year of connecting with Allen under his belt and figures to be the number-one receiving weapon in this offense.
Kahlil Shakir, WR
Shakir is likely to play a majority of his snaps out of the slot, but he can get open on the outside too. I don’t see Shakir directly taking snaps away from Coleman, but he is in line for a bigger target share this season. The third-year pro outpaced Diggs in the second half of 2023 with less than half of the targets Diggs had.
Curtis Samuel, WR
Samuel will likely be moved all over the formation and used to find mismatches wherever the Bills see fit. Samuel had his best season as a pro under Joe Brady in Carolina and I would expect him to be close to those career-best numbers this season.
Mack Hollins, WR
Hollins serves as the most direct potential threat to Coleman’s playing time. They have similar builds and Hollins knows how to get the job done. If Coleman struggles to latch on at the beginning of the season, Hollins could step in and provide the Bills a more reliable option and Brady could rotate Coleman in accordingly.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
I don’t see MVS being much of a factor this season. He only had 21 receptions in 2023 on a Chiefs team that was starving for WRs. If MVS makes the team I see him as a depth player who gets the occasional chance to make a play.
Ceiling, Floor, and Realistic Predictions for Coleman
Ceiling Predictions
70 receptions, 1,000 yards, 8 touchdowns
The days of waiting for young WRs to reach the “year 3” threshold before they see their full potential is a thing of the past. With the evolving college football landscape turning to a pass-happy establishment, rookie WRs are developing into NFL-ready prospects when they come into the league. Recent examples of outstanding rookie seasons include Justin Jefferson (88 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 7 touchdowns) and Ja’Marr Chase (81 receptions, 1455 yards, and 13 touchdowns). I don’t think Coleman has that high of a ceiling this season, but he has the potential to put up significant numbers if all goes well. Here are what consider would-be contributing factors to a season that reaches his “ceiling.”
- Claims a starting role early on and plays 80%+ of the snap share
- Josh Allen has an MVP-caliber season
- Injury-free season
- Coleman gains Allen’s trust as a deep ball option
- Red zone production
Floor Predictions
35 receptions, 450 yards, 2 touchdowns
A “floor” season would be an underwhelming performance by Coleman and would likely cause some panic for Bills Mafia. Having this type of season is certainly in the realm of possibilities. Recent examples of poor rookie WR campaigns include Treylon Burkes in 2022 and Quentin Johnson in 2023. I don’t see Coleman doing any worse than them, especially because he’s being inserted into a better offense than both of those players. Here are what I view as would-be contributing factors to a season that result in Coleman only reaching his “floor”.
- He struggles to get on the field and only secures a 50% snap share
- Misses games due to injury
- His perceived route running and separation issues in college are magnified in the NFL
- Dalton Kincaid, Kahlil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel all have big seasons
- Mack Hollins gains the trust of the coaching staff and plays more than Coleman
Realistic Predictions
55 receptions, 750 yards, 5 touchdowns
Coleman enters into a Bills offense that has had sustained success over the past four seasons and has a superstar QB at the helm. This situation gives him a boost in production by default, assuming he finds his way to significant playing time. Brandon Aiyuk’s rookie season (60 receptions, 748 yards, 5 touchdowns) would be a solid comparison here. Coleman never surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in college, and it’s hard to see him doing that in his first season in the NFL. The above season seems like a realistic goal for Coleman and one that I’m expecting him to reach. Here are the would-be contributing factors to these “realistic” season predictions.
- Plays 70% of the snap share
- Goes through a rookie transition period early and then turns on the production late
- Joe Brady utilizes Coleman in specific sets designed to maximize his strengths early on in the season to get Coleman settled in
- Provides value in the red zone and on third downs
In Summary
Keon Coleman’s rookie season with the Buffalo Bills holds a range of exciting possibilities, from emerging as a key playmaker to facing the typical challenges that come with transitioning to the NFL. While his high-profile draft status and being the heir apparent to Stefon Diggs come with loads of pressure, realistic expectations should balance optimism with patience.
Whether Coleman reaches his ceiling, floor, or falls somewhere in between, his development will be a critical story line for the Bills this year. Fans should embrace the journey, celebrating his growth and contributions as he carves out his role in Buffalo’s dynamic offense.