A common refrain this offseason has been for (often anonymous) national pundits to dump on Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has landed as the third-best quarterback in ESPN’s 2024 top-10 rankings, with NFL executives, coaches, and scouts ranking the league’s top players at the position. This season, Allen improves on his 2023 slot (fourth). Some chose Allen as the NFL’s best, while others ranked him as low as six.
The news isn’t so much where Allen ranks in this exercise — but, rather, the very divisive opinions on Allen as an NFL player. Is Josh Allen the most misunderstood NFL quarterback?
Let’s take a look at what the ESPN article had to say:
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 6
Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 3
Allen’s blend of brilliance and inconsistency has left voters with mixed feelings.
He received the only first-place vote that didn’t go to Mahomes — yet was outside of the top five for several voters. He is Mahomes’ neighbor in style of play but lives on a different street of accomplishment. He’s been in the top five for four consecutive seasons but hasn’t cracked the top two. Most agree Allen should have experienced more playoff success by now.
“He leaves you wanting more a little bit,” an AFC executive said. “But if you’re picking who you want to have to lead your team, he’s going to be second or third for most people. The ceiling is still really high. And I don’t really feel he was the reason the Bills haven’t been able to finish.” Allen is a Luka Doncic-level volume scorer. His 173 total touchdowns since 2020 are easily the league best, and Allen is the only quarterback in NFL history with five seasons of at least 20 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns — which he did consecutively.
Deadly on the move, Allen ranked third in QBR (73) and passing touchdowns (nine) outside of the pocket last season while accounting for 74% of his team’s net yards.
And the Bills’ more run-oriented offense under coordinator Joe Brady seemed to suit Allen late in the season. The fourth quarter brought out the best in Allen, whose 81.2 QBR in the fourth led the NFL. “I saw a quarterback who is consistently a high performer who elevates his team at every chance,” a high-ranking NFL official said.
But that’s not enough to convince some detractors who point to the alarming turnover numbers: 78 interceptions, 59 fumbles since 2018. In contrast, Mahomes has 62 interceptions and 36 fumbles. Allen’s 47 interceptions since 2020 are the most in the league.
“One of the more overrated players in the NFL,” a veteran NFL executive said. “Immense talent but he makes a lot of mistakes. He’s underdeveloped at winning at the line of scrimmage, tends to lock on to targets, more of a thrower than precision passer, forces throws into traffic.”
I believe Jeremy Fowler, the author of the ESPN article quote above, summed it up well in stating “He is Mahomes’ neighbor in style of play but lives on a different street of accomplishment.” I’d add that Allen’s ability at the position is rivaled only by Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
That’s it, in a nutshell. Conversation over. Well, maybe not, thanks to that last bit quoted above as said by one NFL executive. The anonymity gave them carte blanch to point to Allen as a talent overshadowed by mistakes, with inabilities as an at-the-line signal caller who locks on to targets and forces footballs into traffic using his arm talent.
So it is: Another day, another national NFL media outlet featuring someone on staff throwing together a jumble of negative world salad about Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. With so much negativity surrounding his play, you’d believe that the guy just threw away the team’s biggest opportunity to make and win the franchise’s first Super Bowl.
One has to question whether this NFL executive is aware of the following (which were pointed out by Fowler):
- 173 total TDs since 2020
- only NFL quarterback with five seasons of at least 20 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns (done consecutively)
- In 2023, “Allen ranked third in QBR (73) and passing touchdowns (nine) outside of the pocket while accounting for 74% of his team’s net yards”
- NFL-leading 81.2 QBR in the fourth quarter
As a reminder for those who need it, quarterbacks do not play in a vacuum, no matter how often we like to curse at refs for the way they’ve been instructed to protect signal callers. Games aren’t won and lost, nor are legacies decided solely due to the guy who throws the football across the line of scrimmage.
Never before have quarterbacks held so much weight in their sport yet, still, it’s a team game that requires near-perfect execution to win each week. Professional football relies on countless layers of coaching more than most sports, thanks to their direct involvement with on-field decisions each and every down.
So when so-called experts in their field choose to bash a player the caliber of Josh Allen, it’s ripe for dismantling, Bills-focused website or not. Without Allen, things look vastly different for the Bills.
Recently, Nick Wright decided that Allen’s rushing touchdown prowess wasn’t enough to capitulate him to the same sort of greatness found with Mahomes. Wright, similarly to the anonymous NFL exec, found Allen’s one-yard touchdowns to over-inflate his worth.
The truth of the matter is that Wright’s wrong. Completely off-base, and foolish for having suggested it in the first place. Want proof?
Take a look at the following data tweeted by Warren Sharp:
rushing TDs from the 1-yard line since 2021
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 7, 2024
22 - QB Jalen Hurts
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14 - RB Jamaal Williams
13
12 - RB Joe Mixon
11 - RB Derrick Henry, RB Ezekiel Elliott
10 - RB James Conner, RB Josh Jacobs
9 - RB Gus Edwards
8 - RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Austin Ekeler, RB…
most rushing TDs from outside the 10-yard line since 2021
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 8, 2024
10 - WR Deebo Samuel
10 - RB Derrick Henry
9 - RB Nick Chubb
9 - RB Kenneth Walker III
8 - RB Tony Pollard
7 - RB Jonathan Taylor
7 - RB Raheem Mostert
7 - RB Christian McCaffrey
6 - QB Josh Allen
6 - RB…
My point is that we continue to see an endless barrage of hate levied Allen’s way, when most of it completely misses the mark. False narratives often besiege truth in order to fill space.
Does he turn the ball over more than most? Yes. Is it by a wide margin? Hardly, when considering most NFL quarterbacks. Despite his NFL accomplishments, Buffalo Bills quarterback continues to find his fair share out doubters.
I’ve already gone to great lengths stumping for Allen, pulling extensive data to illustrate where others get it completely wrong. But this topic feels like a conversation that won’t ever end.
The incredible thing about the way so many frame negative conversations about Allen is that they come from an angle where they apparently believe he was supposed to be the second coming of quarterback Andrew Luck. It’s as though he’s a player somehow regressing and putting his team in bad situations, following a draft cycle where he was the undisputed top choice for everyone involved.
Spoiler alert: He wasn’t any of that for almost everyone entering the NFL Draft. Allen had to work for everything he found, and it’s no different now. One difference is how Allen’s arrival lined up nicely with the team’s re-emergence as a Super Bowl contender, and perennial playoff team. Again, as I pointed out above none of that is due to Allen alone. But without Allen, none of it’s likely to exist.
Is there something else at play with all this negativity thrown at Josh Allen? Thinking through it all differently, perhaps some pundits can’t wrap their collective heads around what would cause Buffalo to part ways with Stefon Diggs. Maybe they believe it was an Allen issue.
In the event that people didn’t see him play, Diggs was just one season away from establishing a very concerning trend in the second half of seasons. His production dropped precipitously, his touchdowns fell off a cliff. He was hardly ever a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs, his most memorable moments coming via captures that showed him dejectedly watch the Chiefs celebrate, and later shouting at Joe Brady and Josh Allen as the team was losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Yet, this was the same player who reached the highest of wide receiver heights in the regular season while playing with Allen. It continues to baffle me how quick some people are to dismiss Josh Allen’s talent. Those who play with Allen shower praise like few others about his ability and importance to the entire team.
One thing’s clear as it relates to all things Josh Allen: He has yet to earn the benefit of doubt from almost everyone outside the fan base and One Bills Drive. I believe it’s wisest to trust those who play(ed) with him, coach(ed) him, and know Allen beyond a few late-night film-crunching sessions.
Should Allen eventually win a Super Bowl with the Bills, there will be those who minimize the effort and claim he should have more victories. You can’t help but imagine those are the same folks who avoid similar narratives when talking about Aaron Rodgers.
It’s hardly the case that you’ll see other teams and their players talk disparagingly of Allen. They know what’s bound to happen if they invoke his wrath. Few are more fueled by doubt in today’s game than Allen. It’s wise to consider the risk in fueling the Buffalo Bills’ fire-breathing unicorn. Josh Allen’s built for it.