The final installment in our thought experiment includes a bonus round where we look at Sean McDermott’s first season with the Bills
A common refrain among some of Bills Mafia during the 2023 NFL season and continuing now is the sentiment that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By whom? Many don’t seem to care — with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent who creates an “easy button” for a head coach.
That got me thinking. What if we plugged Josh Allen into the underachieving Bills teams of the past? For these editions we do rapid fire of all the years that didn’t get a full article.
Doug Marrone Era
2013
Beat Bengals in WC round, loss to Denver/Manning in Divisional round instead of missed playoffs
2014
This was one of those years that was so disappointing due to how close the Bills were to making the playoffs. At 9-7, the Marrone-era team was only one game back from the Baltimore Ravens for a Wild Card spot. They were right behind the 10-5-1 Bengals as well. The AFC East Champion New England Patriots were three games ahead in what was one of the closer results during the drought era.
Buffalo didn’t face the Ravens or Bengals in the regular season to create a one-game path into the playoffs that way. Both the Bills and Ravens however had equally abysmal conference records (all their losses). So a single game flipped would have put Buffalo in over Baltimore. That’s really depressing when you think about it, but it also means this year is a lock for a playoff berth with our Allen hypothetical. All that’s left is to discuss seeding.
With a good number of the losses within striking distance of Allen being the difference maker, I think the Bills add four wins to their total and seemingly jump ahead of New England to take the AFC East. However, the two teams faced each other to close out the regular season, with the Patriots having nothing to play for. In this scenario taking down Buffalo would have led to a tied overall record but superior division record to take back the crown. Which I think they do.
The Bills become the five seed and knock Baltimore out of the playoffs. Buffalo would have traveled to Indianapolis where the Colts would have put up a fight but ultimately lost to the Bills. The rearranged bracket would have had the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Bengals where Pittsburgh would have squeaked out a win.
Already playing at a high level, New England found another gear in the playoffs on their road to a Super Bowl win. The Bills’ road ends with their third loss to the Patriots.
Rex Ryan Era
2015
WIN THE SUPER BOWL!
2016 Ryan/Anthony Lynn
Let’s address the elephant in the room right away. Josh Allen does improve the team enough where Anthony Lynn doesn’t get a one-game audition as the head coach. That aside, this was a semi-brutal year to get into the AFC playoffs with the six-seed Miami Dolphins having 10 wins, the five-seed Raiders with 12 wins, and the AFC East Champion Patriots with 14 wins. The 7-9 Buffalo Bills’ best route in our thought experiment is to overtake Miami.
It turns out that’s a pretty reasonable bar to clear. Buffalo lost both games against Miami by three points in each game. One of these went to overtime where the Bills had multiple possessions. Additionally, Buffalo had a total of seven one-score losses (including those Dolphins contests).
I don’t want to lay out the full thought process, but I’m confident in the Bills pulling out three more wins with Allen, at least one of which is over the Dolphins to steal the six seed. I don’t think four wins is out of the question either.
For seeding purposes, Buffalo had a head-to-head game against the Raiders. Four wins with one of them being against Oakland would lead to the five seed. That said, I can’t in good faith predict a flip as the Raiders took down the Bills fairly handily. So six seed it is.
In the actual 2016-2017 playoffs, the Dolphins were completely outclassed by a Steelers squad playing at their peak. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills do better than the Dolphins but fall to the Steelers in the Wild Card round.
Sean McDermott Era
2017
Let’s have a little bonus round. In his first season with the Buffalo Bills, head coach Sean McDermott broke the playoff drought. Sure there was a little luck involved, but the Bills did manage to win nine games on their own to get into position to use that luck. We all know I respect Tyrod Taylor, but how much better would this team have fared with peak Josh Allen on the team?
A single extra win overtakes the 9-7 Tennessee Titans for the five seed. To overtake the Patriots, Buffalo would have needed four wins with at least one coming against New England. The 2016 Bills had a knack for losing big when they lost. There were two close losses before the bye in Week 6. That’s it. For my prediction, I think Buffalo takes both and achieves the five seed.
The new seeding takes the Bills to Kansas City. In the actual season, the Chiefs narrowly lost to Tennessee. It’s at this point that I’d like to remind everyone that, overall, the Jacksonville Jaguars went kaio-ken times-ten in the playoffs that year and Buffalo ‘s defensive performance was the best they faced in the postseason. That side of the ball for the Bills was lights out in the Wild Card round. I repeat that I have a ton of respect for Taylor, but the Allen offense should do a bit better.
After taking down the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round, Buffalo loses to a New England team that was elite on both sides of the ball that season.