Predicting target shares for the Buffalo Bills in 2024

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With both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in the fold, there should be plenty of targets to share among the Bills’ new-look group of pass catchers.

The Buffalo Bills’ offense is moving in a different direction. After four years with wide receiver Stefon Diggs leading the charge — amassing over 1,000 yards every single season (on an average of 161 targets a year) — offensive coordinator Joe Brady is set to establish a more diverse, less-predictable passing attack in 2024.

Gone are Diggs and Gabe Davis (81 targets in 2023), the two top wide receivers on the Bills’ depth chart for the last few seasons, and also some complementary pieces in the passing game, like Trent Sherfield (22 targets), Latavius Murray (22 targets) and Deonte Harty (21 targets). Taking 2023 as the parameter, the Bills have 308 of 545 targets available to be distributed among the revamped group.

I'm here today doing my best Cynthia Frelund impression in an attempt to predict what we can expect from the new offense in 2024.

You can also check out my latest episode of Leading The Charge, which has been embedded at the bottom of this article.

NFL: AFC Wild Card Round-Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Kirby Leei-USA TODAY Sports
No Stefon Diggs anymore means more opportunities for the young targets in 2024.

I’ll start by stating that I strongly believe the Bills’ passing game won't have 545 targets by season's end. Since Brady took over the offensive coordinator's duties last season, Buffalo has become one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. I don't see this trend going in a different direction until opposing defenses change their approach of lining up two deep safeties and showing light boxes against Josh Allen and Co, afraid of the quarterback’s big arm, and his aggressive tendencies.

If they don't line up to stop the run, Brady will continue to pound the rock efficiently. If they do, they’ll give Allen more chances to make big plays. It's a “pick-your-poison” situation where I expect opposing defensive coordinators to try and force Allen to be patient — and, at the same time, to make somebody else beat them, as we've witnessed so many times.

Despite being more committed to the run game, the offense under Brady hasn't really passed the ball less than the previous version did (two fewer passing attempts per game, compared to Ken Dorsey's stint in 2023). The improvement in time of possession (five more minutes per game, compared to Dorsey's offense) allowed them to run more and still throw at a fairly good clip.

Having said all that, I project the Bills to have around 525 targets distributed among their pass catchers in 2024. If that holds true, it would be the lowest total number since 2019. But it would still represent a good amount of targets in a balanced offense that, very likely, will be in several close games due to what looks like a very challenging schedule. Below, you can catch my full projection of what to expect from the new and mostly unproven but talented group who are likely or certain roster locks in 2024.

TE Dalton Kincaid

A bit over a year ago, it was widely expected that the Bills would try to add a wide receiver in the first round of 2023 NFL Draft. Instead of doing so, general manager Brandon Beane traded up and selected tight end Dalton Kincaid out of Utah. Bringing size, athletic ability, and the "best hands in the draft,” Kincaid put up nice numbers last year. He was targeted 91 times, making 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns.

Entering his sophomore season and without Diggs in the WR1 role, I expect Kincaid to be featured and become Allen's favorite target going forward. Looking at the team’s current outlook at receiver, Kincaid should become the main "chain-mover” and offer Allen a dependable target in the middle of the field — someone who can explore mismatches against linebackers and safeties in man coverage, but also find soft spots versus zones. Kincaid's development could be the key to opening up what is now a new passing attack. However, I don’t necessarily believe Kincaid will be featured to the extent that we saw when Allen was throwing to Diggs.

2024 Projection: 105 targets, 82 receptions, 830 yards, 7 TDs

WR Khalil Shakir

The third-year pro enters the 2024 season with huge expectations. As a former fifth-round pick, nobody expected a lot from Shakir during his rookie year, but he still flashed at times. Last season, after working with former Bills great Eric Moulds in the summer, Shakir had to prove himself against free-agent additions in Trent Sherfield and Dionte Harty to earn every single opportunity on the field. That work paid off.

Despite being targeted just 45 times (fifth on the team in 2023), Shakir made the most out of his looks — catching 39 passes for 611 yards and two scores. His 15.7 yards per reception were the second-best mark on the team (behind only Gabe Davis), which shows he can be counted on as a downfield threat in an effort to keep defenses honest.

Interestingly, the bulk of Shakir's production came after Brady was promoted to interim offensive coordinator. Despite finding a bigger role midseason, Shakir was able to build solid chemistry with Josh Allen, especially in the playoffs. After one more offseason working out with Moulds — and even being featured as one of the new faces of the team in the Buffalo Bills series “Embedded” — I predict Shakir's role to increase significantly in 2024. He should be moved around, inside and out, and become Diggs’ main replacement — not in terms of production but rather the type of position he should play within Brady’s offensive scheme.

2024 Projection: 95 targets, 74 receptions, 935 yards, 6 TDs

WR Curtis Samuel

Samuel, a former sercond-round pick of the Carolina Panthers, has a past with Joe Brady, and it’s a good one. In 2020 when they worked together, he was able to catch 77 out of the 97 passes thrown his way for 851 yards and three touchdowns. After that season, he moved on to the Washington Commanders and, held down by poor quarterback play, fell short of those 2020 numbers during the last three seasons.

Now with Buffalo, Samuel has a chance to put up the best numbers of his career. With a familiar face calling the shots and an elite quarterback throwing him the football, the eighth-year pro brings a wealth of experience to the receivers room despite his age (will turn 28 in August). Samuel is a Swiss Army knife for an offense: a fleet-footed weapon able to line up all over the field, including in the backfield — where he has some experience running the ball. Replacing Isaiah McKenzie and Deonte Harty in this role, he surely offers an upgrade there — not just in quality but also being able to contribute as an every-down receiver.

I see Samuel taking over the slot role, where he has plenty of experience running those deep crossers that McKenzie used to run and Allen loved to throw to beat man coverage. Samuel offers some nice change-of-direction ability, route running, and he has speed to burn. It’s possible that Samuel becomes an interchangeable piece with Shakir. In fact, it won't surprise me if my projections for Shakir and Samuel end up swapped when the regular season is finished. I have Shakir over him due to his potential and familiarity with Allen, but nobody should sleep on the veteran.

2024 Projection: 76 targets, 60 receptions, 710 yards, 4 TDs

WR Keon Coleman

The Bills’ top pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Coleman arrives with tons of expectations placed on his shoulders. Many expect Coleman to become the team's new WR1. Well, not really, at least not early on. Coleman has all the potential in the world and, according to Brandon Beane, he's going to be inserted as the new “X” receiver in the offense. That, by itself, guarantees him a nice number of opportunities early on.

Don't be fooled by the placement, though. Coleman isn't Diggs' replacement, at least not so early in his career. I see him being counted on to play more of Gabe Davis’ role, becoming a big target outside and downfield, threatening defenses with his size and athletic ability. From the moment Coleman begins winning contested catches downfield, it will open up the curl and comeback routes that Davis used to run and consistently find production. The difference with Coleman is that he can offer way more than that, being dangerous after catch and having dependable hands, unlike Davis. Joe Brady will undoubtedly find ways to get Coleman involved from the get-go. In the big-picture view, the sky is the limit for Keon Coleman. It’s just prudent to expect a transition/learning period from such a young player who will turn 21 in May.

2024 Projection: 69 targets, 47 receptions, 665 yards, 5 TDs

RB James Cook

James Cook made a fantastic jump from year one to his second season. Cook was selected to his first Pro Bowl and he himself as one of the best home-run hitters among AFC running backs. As a contributor catching passes out of the backfield, Cook finished the 2023 season with 44 catches on 55 targets for 445 yards and 4 TDs.

Dallas Cowboys v Buffalo Bills Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images
James Cook has emerged as a star since Joe Brady took over the OC duties.

Entering his third year, I expect Cook to improve his pass-blocking ability in a way that will allow him to remain on the field more — especially during two-minute drills. It would also be nice to see Cook improve his catching ability. Cook, unfortunately, was very inconsistent and it reared its head at the worst times last season. His untimely drops cost the team a couple of touchdowns in need-to-have-it situations. It's not crazy to expect Cook will have another offseason of considerable development, which could make him one of, if not the main focus of the Bills’ offense this season. We know Buffalo’s offense is going to lean heavily on him in the running game, but taking a couple more steps in the right direction will allow him to blossom into a very important weapon in the passing game.

2024 Projection: 74 targets, 57 receptions, 615 yards, 5 TDs

TE Dawson Knox

Knox, the six-year veteran, is an often forgotten man in this group. He started last season as the team’s TE1 but, with injuries slowing him down and the up-and-coming Kincaid playing well, his production decreased compared to the last few seasons. Knox finished the year with 22 catches on 36 targets for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Despite the lost faith in him, Knox should still be a solid contributor to the offense. With the emphasis on the running game, I expect a lot of two-TE sets (12-personnel). Also, Knox should be able to offer some help to Allen — especially running shorter routes and making himself available during scramble drills where his yards-after-catch ability really takes over.

2024 Projection: 45 targets, 29 receptions, 255 yards, 2 TDs

RB2/3 Ty Johnson and/or Ray Davis

It’s impossible right now to predict who between Johnson and Davis will win the RB2 job. Ty Johnson finished last season as a very good, dependable runner. He earned the "ball security role” in the team’s late-game offense. However, the investment made in Davis and how productive he was in his last three collegiate seasons shows he should be ready to contribute from the start. Davis also offers a great skill set on third downs, which could open the door for him to earn more playing time.

Last season, Latavius Murray had an important role as the third-down back. He finished the year with 17 catches on 22 targets for 119 yards. I expect James Cook to remain the unquestioned RB1 and even eat a bit of this share, thanks to remaining on the field for more third-down situations. Still, there will be opportunities for Johnson and Davis, and whoever grabs the RB2 job should find work in the passing game.

2024 Projection: 31 targets, 21 catches, 180 yards, 2 TDs

WR Mack Hollins

Hollins arrives in Buffalo mainly to play special teams and fill in within the receiver rotation, when needed. I view him as WR4 in this offense — and he’s someone who blocks very well in the run game as a big-bodied receiver. I can see him filling in when needed and offering a fair share of solid snaps, and at a better level than Duke Williams and Jake Kumerow did before.

2024 Projection: 15 targets, 8 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD

Others

There are always targets that go to depth players who fill in, like TE3 Quintin Morris or fullback Reggie Gilliam. There's also the WR5 battle (Justin Shorter, Chase Claypool, K.J. Hamler), which carries the role of stepping in when needed due to injury. This number might seem small, but it has the potential to increase depending on the health and availability of the Bills’ top receivers.

2024 Projection: 15 targets, 8 receptions, 85 yards, 2 TDs

Injuries obviously can mess up the above projections, but that's what I expect from this offense if the main receivers are able to stay healthy for the vast majority of the 2024 NFL regular season. Also, there's always the possibility of a guy like Kincaid or Shakir making a huge jump, or Samuel making the most of his first opportunity catching passes from a real franchise QB. There’s even a chance that Keon Coleman's game translates into outstanding production early in his rookie season.

Essentially, any of those possibilities represent true wild cards able to significantly change the passing numbers — but they’re ideas that can't be counted on at this point. I do believe that the individual stats above represent a realistic outlook for Buffalo’s receivers this season.

To get the final passing numbers, I had to add a minimum of 40 extra pass attempts not accounted for as targets (thrown away, batted passes, etc). Overall, that would give Josh Allen a year completing 386 of 565 passes (68.3 completion percentage) for 4,360 yards and 34 passing touchdowns.

If Allen manages to keep the interception numbers down and adds his usual production on the ground, it should be another MVP-worthy season for QB17. Those totals are definitely achievable, considering what we've seen from Joe Brady as the OC last season. When you consider the time Brady's now had to install his own version of this offense, the new hand-picked pieces by the Bills (they might not look sexy to you, but Terrel Bernard didn't as well), and the fact that Josh Allen will be in full command of this aerial attack, while not feeling the need to force-feed a talented but mercurial WR1 who showed several times that he wouldn't be fine with a diminished role in this offense — well, things could improve for Buffalo’s passing attack.

NFL: AFC Divisional Round-Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Allen might be poised for the first MVP award of his career.

All things considered, I'm confident this offense really has a good chance of working out pretty well in 2024. They have the chess pieces to fill the different roles and give Joe Brady different game-planning possibilities. They also have the big-ticket young players with the potential to become stars, and the veteran presence to show them the way and get the job done when some experience is needed.

Yes, the offense lacks an established superstar (for now) able to draw opposing defenses’ attention. But, at the same time, that can be used in their favor with the unpredictability it offers week in and week out. I'm really excited to watch this group grow together, but if things don’t go well... all’s not lost.

Though they’re tight to the salary cap, Brandon Beane could still do a U-turn and look for a star receiver on the market during the season. As we well know, Beane always finds the ammo to do so if needed. Buckle up Bills Mafia, it's going to be an interesting ride.

UPDATE - Marquez Valdes-Scantling added to the mix

The two-time Super Bowl champion wide receiver arrives in Buffalo with a deal full of incentives and few guarantees, which shows me he's closer to a competition for the WR4 job than a guaranteed place in the starting lineup.

MVS is a player that brings a specific skill set for this offense. He's never had a year below 15.0 yards per reception (2023) in his six seasons as a pro, That's a guy that will see the vast majority of his targets downfield, and not very often put up great catch percentage numbers (Gabe Davis anyone?). He arrives to be the most proven field stretcher on this roster, allowing Shakir and Samuel to be used in their favorite roles more often and presenting some insurance in case Coleman needs more time to get comfortable as a pro, or doesn't really translate to the "Davis role".

I don't expect MVS to become a major factor in this offense. I believe the Bills have in Shakir, Samuel and Coleman a top three that can do a bit of everything and do it very well. It's fair to expect the former Chief to take away some targets from everyone but, mainly, from the rookie, especially early in the season, and others from Mack Hollins and the “others” group. That's where I see his production coming from.

2024 Projection: 34 targets, 16 receptions, 260 yards, 2 TDs

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