What if...Josh Allen quarterbacked the 2015 Buffalo Bills?

Buffalo Bills v New York Jets — Photo by Al Pereira/Getty Images for New York Jets

Would the 2015 Bills have found a much different fate with Josh Allen settled in at QB?

A common refrain among Bills Mafia during the 2023 NFL season and continuing now is the sentiment that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By whom? Many don’t seem to care — with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent who creates an “easy button” for a head coach.

That got me thinking. What if we plugged Josh Allen into the underachieving Bills teams of the past?

What if... Josh Allen quarterbacked the 2015 Buffalo Bills?

Overview

Saint Doug Marrone had departed Buffalo of his own free will in a cloud of text messages to his team. Reportedly hopeful to land the recently vacant New York Jets head coaching job, instead things went the other way with former Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan being welcomed to Western New York with heavily dyed ricotta cheese. Hopeful to land the coach that overachieved with Mark Sanchez, the Bills went 8-8, finishing third in the division, and missed the playoffs. Along the way, the NFL learned a valuable lesson about colorblindness.

Coaches and Stats

Rex Ryan, noted for his strong defensive schemes, brought along his Jets defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman to keep that going — or at least attempt to. Greg Roman was brought over from the San Francisco 49ers to run the offense.

Roman took things from an Air Coryell standard to a West Coast one. I don’t see any need to wait until later in the article like I usually do to discuss tendencies. Greg Roman was famous for creatively running the ball, and he has a history of success with dual-threat quarterbacks.

On the defensive side Ryan elected to run his 3-4 system. That was a change from the 4-3 under the former staff — although Marrone only ran a 4-3 one year. The year prior it was 3-4. Before Marrone the Bills ran a 4-3 under Chan Gailey. Thus highlighting a reason I think some of the Doug Whaley criticism is unwarranted (not all). This was the fourth year in a row where personnel had to be revamped to cater to a major defensive scheme change.

Buffalo’s better side of the ball was the Roman-led offense. Buffalo was 11th in the league for points per drive, with 1.95 in that measure. Interestingly, that was somewhat skewed toward touchdowns as they fell to 15th place in scoring drives, with 34.9% of drives ending by putting points on the board. A big factor in their output was their 8.6% turnover rate, fourth-best in the league.

Buffalo only had nine interceptions all year, and only six of those were from starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Intriguingly, despite being a mobile quarterback, Taylor had a sack rate of 8.7%, with the team slightly better overall at an 8.6% sack rate. That was the fifth worst in the league.

Though the offense was the strength of the team, it’s an incredibly relative statement. The defense was 14th in points per drive, allowing 1.81 on average. With 32.5% of opposing drives ending in a score, the Bills landed at 13th in the NFL. Their 11.0% turnover rate was 22nd.

If you don’t recall much pressure on opposing QBs that year, kudos on your accurate memory. With a 3.4% sack rate, only the Atlanta Falcons were worse. Buffalo had a scant 21 sacks on the year and a 25th-best 79 QB hits.

Supporting Cast

Rex Ryan brought in Tyrod Taylor, previously with the Baltimore Ravens, for his man under center. Known for his deep ball, mobility, and ability to protect the football, Taylor was a solid choice to pair with Greg Roman. While Taylor’s stats look good in many respects, especially efficiency ones, a lot can also be said about the Bills having had the second-fewest passing attempts in the league. Buffalo’s run-first philosophy helps highlight that the passing game often was predicated on being sure a play was available. In simpler terms, they played it safe.

At running back, the Buffalo Bills had Touchdown Mike at the ready. Mike Gillislee and Karlos Williams backed up a guy you might have heard of. LeSean McCoy was brought over from the Philadelphia Eagles and had a solid season in efficiency while running, and an incredible 9.1 yards per reception while helping out that side of the offense.

The featured receiver was Sammy Watkins, who had his only 1,000-yard season in 2015. Robert Woods and Chris Hogan rounded out the room fairly nicely, and Charles Clay came up from Miami and had a productive season for Buffalo.

Injuries to Kyle Williams, Stephon Gilmore, and Leodis McKelvin tested depth and maybe help explain some of the defensive shortcomings. The linebackers featured Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, and Manny Lawson.

On the line Jerry Hughes, Mario Williams, and Marcell Dareus were on the field but overall less productive than desired. Murmurs of dissatisfaction with the scheme didn’t help matters. On paper the team was neither All-Madden-worthy nor a wasteland of talent. Looking back, it still seems fair to see this as an indictment on Ryan’s ability to coach defense.

The Josh Allen Effect

Let’s work on the idea of a defensive ripple first. For any new readers, I like to look at time of possession and chances a game could turn into a blowout. Both situations can help the defense either through rest or making the opponent more predictable. For 2015, for all intents and purposes there will be no defensive ripple. Buffalo’s methodical nature led to an elite time of possession in 2015 and I don’t think adding any blowouts is on the table. The Bills would have remained an overall average unit that struggled to get pressure but were okay at preventing points.

There are some things I will say with certainty regarding the 2015 season. If Josh Allen quarterbacked the 2015 Bills they would have had more turnovers. I’m also certain they would have been a more-potent offense overall. This year had Watkins at his best, Robert Woods would likely see more targets, and Charles Clay’s lingering injury issues were yet to be as severe as being unable to come back for a game-winning touchdown. Shady was Shady. Can you imagine teams having to game plan for both him and peak Josh Allen with a Greg Roman scheme? Good. ****ing. Luck.

Another thing I’m certain of is that Josh Allen would have been allowed to use his legs. I think there would have been some encouragement to play less hero ball while passing, but history has proven some of the conservative tendencies in passing were Tyrod himself. Though they may tamp it a bit, Ryan and Roman wouldn’t have remotely remove Allen’s throwing prowess. Ryan in particular had no issue living and dying with high-turnover QBs. More than many of these “What Ifs,” I think this team gains major electricity with Allen.

Season Results

With the prediction below (no peeking) I want to reassure everyone that I was very meticulous with this particular “What If.” I did deeper dives into individual results and will be giving more firm predictions. To reach the postseason in 2015, the 8-8 Buffalo Bills were chasing the 10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers (no head-to-head) and Kansas City Chiefs at 11-5 (Buffalo lost head-to-head) for the Wild Card. For the AFC East, they were four games back from the New England Patriots at 12-4 and lost both head-to-head games. Without further ado, here are the list of games I feel end with a different outcome...

While it was a two-score loss, I feel pretty good about the 2015 hypothetical Bills taking down the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6. Buffalo moved the ball well on first- and second-downs in the first half and stalled repeatedly on 3rd & Short. Allen keeps one or more of these drives going early and they enter the half either tied or ahead (instead of down three). Buffalo also effectively ended the game with the ball and came away with nothing. In a closer game the Bills aren’t taking deep shots trying to get two scores and are able to settle down and get the win here.

I was torn between Cincy and the game against Kansas City in Week 12. I feel better about the Bengals game due to early game woes that I think Allen irons out. Against KC, there were fewer of those early game opportunities with less 3rd & Short. Also, one key conversion came to naught after a McCoy fumble on the next play. Additionally, while I think Allen gets a late score the 2015 Bills didn’t, it would be before the final KC field goal. Buffalo is still down one score. They did get the ball back, but to take the lead I’d want to be more confident Allen fixes both of the final drives and I’m less sure on that. While I didn’t flip this game, I mention it as you can flip a coin with the Cincy game. I think they pull one of these two out with similar results to my final prediction, so take your pick.

Jacksonville is one I’m confident about. Buffalo had the game close and had the ball at the end. EJ Manuel lost a small amount of ground on a 3rd & 1 and then threw an incomplete pass on 4th & 2. I have high confidence Allen converts this on two tries and comes up with a game winner. That’s assuming the earlier portions of the game hadn’t already put Buffalo ahead.

In both games against New England the Bills kept it to one score. A major reason for the Rex Ryan hire was his ability to play the Patriots well, and honestly I think these were good showings by Ryan’s Bills despite the losses. I flipped the second meeting in Week 11 to a win. Tom Brady was kept in check overall. One of New England’s touchdowns occurred with minimal time in the second quarter and the Bills had many lost opportunities for longer drives in the first two quarters. Allen extending even one drive takes a minimum of four points off the board for the Patriots. Between that and an overall poor showing on offense, I think Allen finds another score and Buffalo takes this game.

In a very similar outcome, Buffalo beats the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 with Josh Allen. Several short-yardage situations were stalled in the actual 2015 game. Allen converting even one takes a Philly field goal off the board before the half. That means Allen needs to find one score more than the actual team in 60 minutes to take the win. I think he does it.

Again, I was very meticulous on this one, diving into the play-by-play deep. I even went Santa-mode and checked my list twice. Even though this is meant to be fun, I want my predictions to be based on objective criteria that I can back. Why so meticulous on this What If edition...

PREDICTION: Josh Allen is named Super Bowl MVP in the Buffalo Bills’ victory over the Carolina Panthers. Yes, really.

With the games noted above, Buffalo is now 12-4 and bumps New England to 11-5. Buffalo takes the AFC East. With the win over Cincinnati, the Bengals also move to 11-5. They still take the AFC North but fall below Buffalo. Houston still takes the South at 9-7. The Broncos match Buffalo’s 12-4 record but all of their losses were to the AFC. With two of their four losses to NFC opponents, Buffalo is the new one seed.

If you’re not in agreement with me on the Cincy vs. KC outcomes and feel Buffalo loses to the Bengals it’s okay because it’s mostly irrelevant. Assuming I’m reading the tiebreakers correctly, that puts Buffalo, Denver, and Cincy all at 12-4. Head-to-head with Cincy is disregarded in this case thanks to the three-way tie. Because none of the teams either beat both of the other or lost to both, it goes to conference record. In this case, Buffalo’s two losses to NFC teams still puts them in the one spot.

Our new bracket becomes:

Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans
New England Patriots (head-to-head win over KC during regular season)
Kansas City Chiefs

Wild Card Round

Kansas City over Cincinnati — Cincy’s actual performance was lackluster in this round, while KC dominated in their WC game.
New England over Houston — New England didn’t play in the actual WC round, but Houston had a goose egg in their game so I’m confident in this result.

Divisional Round

Denver over New England — This game gets bumped up a week. In the actual 2015 playoffs, Denver eked out a victory over NE thanks in large part to their best-in-class defense that year. In the actual Divisional Round it was a similar story over the Steelers.
Buffalo over Kansas City — In 2015, Kansas City struggled to put points on the board against the Patriots. The one-score result hides the fact that it was a two-score game until 1:13 in the fourth quarter. KC fizzled in this round against an opponent somewhat evenly matched to Buffalo, so objectively this result stays similar.

AFC Championship

Buffalo over Denver — In the actual 2015 season, Denver beat New England 20-18. Give credit where it’s due to Denver’s defense in both playoff games for sure, but I do have to bet on Josh Allen elevating the 2015 Bills when it comes to putting points on the board. Without Allen, Buffalo put up 21 or 22 points against the Bengals and Jets in three combined outings. I call out those games in particular as those defenses were ranked closely behind Denver’s.

Going the other direction, this was Peyton Manning’s final season with a Super Bowl victory coming largely due to said defense. The similarly ranked Patriots defense keeping that team to 20 points should play out about the same. This is more subjective perhaps, but I also wonder if Mario Williams worries a little less about being asked to drop into coverage when it’s in the AFC Championship.

Super Bowl

In 2015 Cam Newton had an MVP, All-Pro, incredible season. The Carolina Panthers were very difficult to stop on offense. Which makes their ten-point performance in the biggest game one of the best arguments I’ve ever seen for the importance of sports psychology. Yes, Denver’s defense was really good that year and that’s a part of the outcome, but this was also the Cam Newton implosion game. Our hypothetical Bills team doesn’t hold Carolina to 10 points, but 20 or less is not remotely unimaginable.

Peyton Manning’s stat line from the game was 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, and 141 yards on 23 attempts. He completed just 13 of those (56.5%). The 90 yards rushing from the team doesn’t exactly scream “great performance” either. The offense scored only 17 points with one touchdown added by the defense on a fumble recovery.

Buffalo doesn’t get the defensive score, and that likely helps Carolina score more than 10 points too. But the Bills’ new Allen-led offense outpaces the Denver/Manning one. Since I’m already in this deep, let’s say Buffalo wins 24-20.

Note: This series is intended as nothing more than a thought experiment to open up discussion on the Buffalo Bills. I hope you enjoy it and feel free to disagree and add your own best guesses into the mix in the comments. Go Bills!